The 2026 MLB postseason will continue Wednesday with four Game 2s of the best-of-three Wild Series cards. Tuesday’s action left four teams — the Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres — one out of the Division Series. On the other side of things, four teams have one loss away from home for the offseason: the Philadelphia Phillies, the Houston Astros, the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs.
Since this format was used in the 2022 postseason, only once in 16 games has a Game 1 loser come back to win the Wild Card Series. This past year the Yankees over the Red Sox, thanks in large part to Cam Schlittler’s sensational performance in Game 3. On only four other occasions has a Game 1 loss made it a power play of 3. To state the obvious, winning Game 1 is a huge advantage.
It’s not history on the part of the Phillies, Astros, Red Sox and Cubs, but that’s why they play games. Here are the four Game 1 losers in order of what we think is the most likely history for the Bucks to come out on top and win the Wild Card series.
1. Chicago Cubs
Chicago has had the best offense in baseball this season, and they will need to wake up after Game 1
The Cubs were stuck in Game 1, and the Padres, in an effort to shore up Michael King, didn’t dive too deep into the relief efforts of their best relievers. Also, Game 2 starter Nick Pivetta lights-out for the Padres from the sidelines. All the cubs, he says, are far from dead and buried.
In a broader debate, it’s fair to argue the Cubs are the better team in this series. So, the Padres finished two games ahead of them in the standings. Look a little deeper, though, and you’ll find that the Cubs are hitting an impressive 147 runs in the regular season — the third-best differential in all of MLB. The Padres, meanwhile, are running away from their opponents much more modestly. Both Cubs owners run far better differentials against tougher schedules, as measured by their opponents’ average winning percentage.
The Cubs, of course, were driven by their offense, who led the majors in OPS during the regular season. Yes, hitter-friendly Wrigley Field helps the offense’s cause, but let’s not forget that the Cubs ranked second in MLB road OPS this season. This is an offense that can hit anywhere. In addition, the Cubs ranked third out of MLB’s 30 teams in OPS against right-handed pitchers, of which Pivetta is one. There is the best hope for the puppies. Yes, Chicago’s line got choked by the Kings in the opening series, but this offense can find its stride at any moment. That could happen Wednesday if the Cubs win Game 3. — Dayne Perry
2. Philadelphia Phillies
After a Game 1 loss, the Phillies will give the ball to Cristopher Sánchez in Game 2.
I have no doubt that Game 1 was a great loss. The Phillies were four outs away from a stolen start by Chris Sale and interim manager Don Mattingly handled it very aggressively, using closer Jhoan Duran in the seventh inning against the top of the Braves lineup. Austin Lee flipped a three-run homer in the eighth inning in the game and flipped the series. Compressing, Etc.
Good news: Philadelphia will have Cy Young candidate Cristopher Sánchez on the mound in Game 2. Also good news: Atlanta won’t have Chris Sale on the mound in Game 2. It will start with shortstop Tyler Mahle, who turned his season around with the Braves thanks to increased usage. 1.99 ERA is not good, but it is better. Mahle is still not Sale, though.
Inside Don Mattingly’s Jhoan Duran plan that backfired in the Phillies’ Wild Card Series Game 1 loss
Matt Snyder
The bad news: Duran figures to have some level of fatigue in Game 2 (I’m sure he’ll be available despite the objections of 27 points in Game 1), and the offense is stuck in the mud. It’s Chris Sale, I get it, but the Phillies had chances to track on in Game 1 and didn’t do it. They went for 13 in the six games before the run, and that includes seven touchdowns in a game of 162. That’s not great.
The Phillies have a right-handed guy on the mound for Sánchez, and I’d bet Zack Wheeler will make a bright appearance at some point. Finally, a home handicap and an offense that will be dormant for a month are now two big battles against the Phillies. This is baseball, which means you have a shot at winning the series, but this is sure to be a tough battle. — Mike Axis
3. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox offensively struggled as Max Fried and rested the Yankees bullpen
Fresh off a Game 1 bashing, the Red Sox face a lot of running backs against the Yankees. After Cums dominated Cam Schlittler in Game 1, Boston now has to face Max Fried with his season on the line. Fried has been one of the top starting pitchers in all of baseball, both in 2026 and for his entire career (among active pitchers such as Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom, Fried has a better career ERA+ than Fried’s mark of 142). No, the Yankees didn’t bring back AL MVP Aaron Judge in this series, but the Red Sox still have a weaker offense. Over this season, they rank 19th in OPS among MLB’s 30 teams. Finally, in September, they died in the same class. Better on the left, but this is Fried. The Yankees didn’t have David Bednar, Brent Headrick, or Carlos Rodon in relief (working in this series) in Game 1, so the light arms are pretty well set for Wednesday.
The Red Sox need Roman Antonio to survive vs. The Yankees, however, have been plagued by injuries at the hands of their season.
Julian McWilliams
Add to that the fact that Antony was a young Roman outsider, leaving a series of opening questions with his hand (the same injured hand that is so present in the present tense), and not looking at the big things at Saxus. The best hope is that veteran Sonny Gray steps in and lowers the bar for Boston’s struggling offense. That’s not a lot of hope though. — Dayne Perry
4. Houston Astros
Houston is at home, but the 81-81 team now needs two straight wins to keep the season open
Obviously, the Astros are at the bottom of our rankings because they are the worst of the four teams down 1-0. They went 81-81 and scored 32 runs in the regular season, and didn’t even finish strong (11-13 in September). That’s not to say the Astros can’t come back to win the series — the White Sox aren’t the toughest opponent — just that they’re not a great team.
Houston has a few things going for it in Game 2. Ace Hunter Brown will be on the mound. White Sox high-leverage guy Grant Taylor almost certainly won’t be available after going seven outs and throwing a season-high (by a lot) 54 pitches in Game 1. The Astros are also at home, and Daikin Park is a big and intimidating ballpark in football. well, at least that have it was. This is all good news for the Astros.
In the end, though, there are no teams at the bottom of our list, and it seems logical to pick the 12 worst teams on television at that point. These Astros were potentially going two-and-out in the Wild Card Series, so that wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. — Mike Axis