Apocalypse of value ’26: Miguel Vargas

Translated by Pepe Latorre

Looking forward to the fourth year of our “Value Revelation” series! As the title suggests, in this space I’m going to highlight some of the players selected in the back ranks of the draft who are far exceeding the draft picks (Average Draft Position, in the draft).

The data I use is ADP, which comes from all NFBC non-auction drinks and the dollar value generated by the order. Player Rater (Instrument in * FanGraphs).

Michael Vargas1B/3B, Chicago White Sox
ADP: 278.5
Order $ acquired: 17

The White Sox were the biggest surprise among teams in October 2026, and no player had a bigger impact on them than Vargas.

Coming from the Dodgers in a 2024 trade deal, Vargas has emerged as one of the more polished hitting rookies in the Minors, posting a .308/.396/.493 slash line with a 12% walk rate and 16.1% strikeout rate. But those skills don’t immediately transfer to the major league level. In those first three seasons, which involved 591 plate appearances, Vargas posted a .175/.273/.312 offensive line, with a walk rate of 11% and a strikeout rate of 22.2%.

Vargas showed flashes of his potential in his first season with the White Sox in 2025. He posted a wRC+ of 101, hitting 16 home runs and 32 doubles with a 40.5% hard hit rate. His 9.4% barrel rate and 89.7 mph exit velocity average were around league average or a tick above. Vargas finished that season with a bang, hitting .267/.354/.436 after the All-Star break. The 26-year-old’s top contact ability began to show with a 17.6% strikeout rate.

Despite some promising signs and a strong second half in 2025, Vargas was not a priority for those draft picks in fantasy league last spring, as can be seen in the ADP above. But it wasn’t long before the participants realized that perhaps they had made a mistake in not including him in their plans. By June 9th, Vargas had already equaled the number of home runs from the previous year and had also established a new personal record in stolen bases (then he had nine steals compared to the one season in which he was thrown).

In total, Vargas hit 33 home runs, 93 RBIs, 106 runs scored and 22 stolen bases. Below is a list of players with at least 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Vargas was in good company.

Players with 30 or HR and 20 or SB

Of the five players mentioned, Vargas had by far the lowest strikeout rate at 17.6% (CJ Abrams was second lowest at 24.2%). However, his .250 batting average was also far and away the worst (followed again by Abrams, at .261). That’s because Vargas is a hitter who usually flies balls, and those types of players don’t usually achieve high batting averages. Unless you’re a gamer Jordan Alvarez o* Aaron the judge.

In those two full seasons in the Major Leagues, Vargas has registered a 35.3% fly ball rate, which ranks him 14th among 333 players who have enough to qualify. Looking at the natural part of fly balls, its figure is 25.9%, which allows it to be placed in the 31st place in the same list. However, this percentage increased in 2026 to reach 28.4%, placing it in nineteenth place.

Vargas has posted a .261 BABIP in each of the last two seasons, with a .243 average over his career. Both numbers are low, but again, this is typical of hitters who hit a lot of fly balls and is unlikely to change dramatically unless Vargas’ profile changes. But we don’t want that (at least not radically), as Vargas seems to have found the sweet spot, combining better contact quality with excellent talent at the plate.

Another aspect that I wanted to highlight is Vargas’ ability to handle all types of voices. This table shows their career value, both total and per 100 words, depending on the pitch type. Overall, he had a .374 wOBA (.382 xwOBA) against strikeouts, .335 (.361) against breaking balls, and .348 (.398) against changeups.

Against Vargas, as you can see above, nine different types of pitches were calculated by Baseball Savant, and there was no negative run against any of them. Even the two voices against which he produced a neutral run value combined accounted for only 9.3% of the voices that were related. His lowest xwOBA against all three types of balls was .361, against breaking balls. As a point of reference, he posted an overall xwOBA of .361 in all of baseball 25. Well, Luck came up with a plan of attack to beat Vargas in the batting box.

The fact that Vargas topped 20 stolen bases this season was perhaps the biggest surprise from the infielder, although perhaps he shouldn’t have been. He never really stood out as a great base stealer in the minor leagues, yet he hit double figures three times, hitting a total of 17 between the Major Leagues and the minor leagues in 2022. Vargas, however, has always been a base hitter in the minor leagues, with a 79% success rate. So far, in the major federations, the rate stands at 88%. Also, let’s not forget the most important thing: Vargas is fast! Its running speed in 2026 was at 82 percent, a mark higher than that Oneil Cruz.

The next time I see Vargas, things are a little more casual. It’s true that his batting average hurts more than it helps, but if he repeats his 250 average in 2026, it won’t be bad at all, especially since the number is still six points above the league-wide average this season. In 2027, Vargas will undergo a period in which he will turn 27 years old and will be part of the central block of Patipálidos that is in full control.