What used to be, turned out to be something new for the year.
It was some time after Hideo Nomo’s breakout move from Japan NPB to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1995, far from a guarantee that any given MLB offseason would be a significant signing of prize NPB talent. The role of players and pitchers has increased, but during the next two decades, the game often goes years between the top Japanese players making the jump from NPB to MLB, from Ichiro Suzuki in 2001 to Hideki Matsui in 2003 to Daisuke Matsuzaka in 2007 to Yu Darvish in 2012 to Masahiro Tanaka in 2014 to Masahiro Tanaka in 2014 to Shohei.
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times have changed. For the sixth consecutive MLB offseason, one (or more) of the top free agents available to MLB teams is moving to NPB mega-star status. Now, not all of these top-tier free agents have validated the hype surrounding them in a hot season, but there is no denying that the success stories have reshaped the free agent market and forced the entire league to consider NPB players as potential franchise acquisitions.
This winter, three players headline the class of NPB stars coming to the MLB: Hanshin Tigers third baseman Teruaki Sato (No. 6 in our Top 50 free agent rankings), Seibu Lions right-hander Kaima Taira (No. 19) and Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters right-hander Hiromi Itoh (No. 40). Crucially, reports indicate that the usual 45-day window for NPB stars to seek MLB contracts will not be revised due to the upcoming lockout, which freezes federal transactions. What that means for Sato, Taira and Itoh is that they have to negotiate before the current CBA expires at 11:59 pm ET on Dec. 1.
In a tall but newsworthy order of rotation options, Taira and Itoh provide the team’s investment profiles, with Taira carrying a high-octane arsenal despite his unusual build and Itoh emerging as a high-value innings bowler with exceptional pitchability. But on the free agent market, a remarkably shallow impact at bats, Sato — who turns after March 28, especially as a young free agent — stands out. And he looks around at the deadline for him to strike a deal that will be a significant factor for the rest of November.
Unlike most modern Japanese stars, Sato wasn’t a top prospect in high school in Osaka, but his stock once enrolled at nearby Kindai University, one of the top collegiate programs in the country. There, his power play power quickly separated Sato from his peers, and in 2020, four NPB teams — Hanshin Tigers, Orix Buffaloes, Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and Yomiuri Giants — named him as a first-round pick. (In Japan, multiple teams can name the same draft pick, and then a lottery system determines which club wins the winning rights.) In this case, the Osaka-based Tigers won the rights to Sato, launching a professional career with his home country.
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Sato’s rookie season in 2021 featured both tremendous highs and troubling lows. In the 13th game of NPB’s career, he hit a walk-off home run from Yokohama Stadium in a win over the BayStars. As May, he became the first NPB rookie with a three-hit game since 1958. But in July, he tied the NPB record by hitting five times in one game. And down the stretch, he snapped a Chris Davis-esque drought of 59 consecutive plate appearances without a hit — a historic streak that dates back to Aug. 21. to Oct. 5 he distended, and included the demotion of the minors. At the end of his rookie campaign, Sato tallied 24 home runs in the ninth in the NPB, but his sky-high 38% strikeout rate across 455 plate appearances was unprecedented in league history.
Over the next three seasons, Sato gradually made the necessary saves to become one of the best batsmen in Japan. He cut his strikeout rate to 25% and put up an .801 OPS, which ranked 14th in NPB over that span as the league descended into something like a dead ball. Along the way, Sato made the transition from right field — where he made his 99th career start as a rookie — to third base, which became his primary defense. Most notably, he was a key contributor to the 2023 Tigers club that won Japan’s first series title since 1985, a long-standing hex on Hanshin, nicknamed the “Evil Colonel” (a hilarious superstition even by baseball standards).
At that point, Sato was trending toward an interesting, if flawed, candidate to make the jump to the MLB. Then in 2025 he balanced. It started before the NPB season even officially started, as Sato hit a home run off Blake Snell in the Dodgers’ exhibition game against Hanshin before their series in Tokyo against the Cubs.
That slugger has grabbed a lot of attention, considering how rarely lefty hitters catch in the deep south. But Sato was just getting started. In 2025, his slugging output went from remarkable to astounding as he hit 40 NPB best home runs en route to Central MVP honors. Then, with Team Japan competing in the WBC, he hit another 39 goals in the NPB in 2026, giving him a total of 79 in 282 games. For comparison, Franmil Reyes was second in the NPB with 64 in that span, and Sato’s Tigers teammate Shota Morishita — another name to file as a future NPB-to-MLB candidate — was third with 58. No other NPB hitter had more than 50 hits in that span; 40 octogenarians
A huge breakout season in 2025 will be followed by a bow heading into the 2026 season, when MLB free agency becomes available. And amid great pressure to resume production and consolidate its position as a premium brand for the big leagues, Sato delivered, and then some. Last season, his performances and outlier slugging included a career-best .306 batting average. That helped him become the ninth player in NPB history (and the third this century) to win the triple crown, following in Munetaka Murakami’s footsteps with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows in 2022.
Murakami — whose free agency last offseason stalled in late December before the Chicago White Sox signed him to a more lucrative deal than many expected (two years, $34 million) — looms large as a comparison to Sato. In his rookie MLB season, Murakami had a deal that made him look like a bona fide deal, and he had a cold streak filled with ugly hits that reinforced some pessimism about his free agency. For that reason, and finally with the rookie campaign of Blue Jays slugger Kazuma Okamoto, Sato’s next chance for a Japanese bat to earn a big-time free agent contract rests in the shadows of those two examples.
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The tantalizing, left-handed Titan defines a similar profile to Sato Murakami, and he comes with questions about his bat-to-ball ability and defensive outlook. That said, they both seem to diverge somewhat from what Murakami was aiming for – for better or for worse.
The main contrast between Murakami and Sato is the red flags raised at the plate in their respective hostile decisions. Sato’s strike rates hovered around 27% in the final three NPB seasons, while Murakami’s was closer to 30%. That may not seem like a huge difference, but over that span, Sato also made significantly more pitches in the strike zone (82%) than Murakami (73%) leading up to the jump to MLB.
But while Sato might be able to overcome the raw contact leadership, the traits are promising for how much more aggressive he is, chasing 35% of pitches outside the strike zone over the past three seasons (the MLB average is closer to 30%). Sterling training and lower strikeout rates (~25%) have always allowed Murakami to draw walks (16.2% walk rate in NPB, 16.6% as an MLB rookie) for all the punchouts and a low batting average. Meanwhile, Sato’s 11.1% walk in 2026 represented a career high.
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How teams determine Sato’s ability to adapt his approach against major-league arms and maximize his raw power will be critical in determining his willingness to invest this winter. You can find evaluators who bully him more than Murakami because of his superior contact skills, and there are also those who think that his attack at the end should be exploited against better positions.
Then there is the defense. Murakami also got plenty of reps on the field at the hot corner, but the consensus was early among the major league clubs that a move to first base was required. Okamoto, meanwhile, has proven to be perfectly capable at third for Toronto as a rookie, despite some concerns that he might be a negative there.
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Sato’s reputation at third base is more mixed, with his overall athleticism and more arm suggesting he could handle an everyday third-base job in the big leagues with the right tweaks, but his erratic throwing accuracy and mediocre range hinting that a move to the corner outfield could be more productive. That said, it’s pretty big for his market that Sato has a more likely path to playing time than Murakami, who was widely expected to be plugged in at first base or DH.
Aside from the various pros and cons of Sato’s profile, there is one final point to keep in mind when considering his chances of landing a great deal in free agency, especially compared to Okamoto and Murakami. This winter, there are simply far fewer options for teams looking to make significant upgrades to their lineups. Last winter, when the clubs were considering pursuing Murakami and Okamoto, six other premium (and proven) position players were also available in Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber and Bo Bichette, all of whom were signed as nine-figure free agents. This offseason, the likes of Seiya Suzuki and Randy Arozarena are planning to get net contracts worth $100 million, with a few others likely to command even half of that.
Which team will go up and sign a strong Sato? And how much does it cost? Now, it’s anyone’s guess, but with this particular offseason calendar, we won’t have to wait much longer to find out.