Gunnar Henderson and Elly De La Cruz are this offseason’s most interesting Trade Chips

If you’re anything like us here at FanGraphs HQ, you’ll also be agonizing over our annual list of the top 50 free agents on the market this winter. Debating whether Carson Kelly or Tyler Stephenson is the better choice, our supreme civil rights are unassailable, and also a whole lot of harmless fun. But you may also notice that, unlike the ultra-agent class of 2022 that included Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Trevor Historia, the legends are considerably thinner at shortstop this year. Mauricio Dubón and JP Crawford — useful players, but not building blocks — are the best the position has to offer.

As such, any team with a short-term hole in their roster would be wiser to pursue a trade where two young players with tremendous talent but without a long-term contract could fill the gap: Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles and Elly De La Cruz of the Russians.

Let’s start with Henderson. The one-season wunderkind had a more tumultuous run in production with a 7.9 WAR and 154 wRC+ as a 23-year-old in 2024. That season — which also came with a .281 batting average, 21 stolen bases, and a fourth-quarter MVP — is a reminder of what he’s capable of. But a quick check of both traditional and peripheral states shows that they haven’t been the same since. Part of that, as Henderson revealed after this season, Baltimore’s second straight under .500, was the result of shoulder and wrist injuries. Tribuo for the ball in 2025 caused a shoulder impingement that Henderson refused to move the bat plane, and spent half of 2026 playing with a broken wrist. Davy Andrews covered Henderson’s ailments in depth at the start of October, and a fully recovered Henderson has certainly bounced back in 2027, but as he’s tried to play his way through the last two campaigns, his performance hasn’t been commensurate with that of a superstar player. In the two seasons since his peak, his home run totals have dropped from 37 to 17 and 24, respectively, and his collective hitting percentage has slowed over 100 points, going from .529 in 2024 to a lethargic .420 in ’25 and ’26. However, the progressives also do not wish to cut the numbers. Through wRC+, wOBA, xwOBA, xSLG — and perhaps most indicative of physical ailments, average exit velocity, slugging rate, and barrel rate — Henderson has taken a significant step back.

So does his ballclub, which drafted him in the second round in 2019, the same one in which Adley Rutschman was selected first overall. Seven years later, with no playoff wins to show for it, Rutschman has already kicked out the door, and Henderson could be next. Andy Kostka, who covers the Orioles Baltimore Bannerannounced this week that the O’s would like to increase the rotation and outfield deficit, and the primary duty is “to listen to the trade discussions of all players except Pete Alonso”, with the caveat that moving Henderson “is not likely to pay a steep price for Baltimore, but at this point on all fronts open”. With Rutschman’s division rival, mature talents Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser having sunk in their league careers so far, and the team also likely to lose Trevor Rogers in free agency, these birds can fly to another rebuild. Henderson is one player capable of making a comeback that would make it easier for Orioles fans to stomach.

The key thing to remember about Henderson — aside from all his not-so-distant-to-everything footsteps as a great player — is that he’s still only 25 years old. It’s far more likely that his 2025 and 2026 combo accidents were plate injuries and with the growing pain flags (albeit on a large sample size), they were an indication of a player who was starting to lose his mojo for good. His bat speed, like everything else, has trended downward over the past two years, but it’s still at 73 percent. His walk rate is too stable at around 10%, and although he chases down more pitches, it’s tangible that he can be fine-tuned as he approaches. Teams with weak-armed 2026 offense should, and will, view Henderson as a solid project rather than a contemptible Lemon, especially if he starts his new job with a clean bill of health. The Braves, Blue Jays, and Mariners all got below average production from last year and every player on our Top 100 Prospects list who is an outfielder or starting pitcher is a target for Baltimore.

In the case of Seattle and Toronto, organizations are also attracting young players to the big league level, which makes sense to trade chips for packages with smaller rewards. The names George Kirby and Bryce Miller will compete for Jerry Dipoto’s job, as the M’s are lining up starters Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan. In the meantime, the Blue Jays can release Brandon Valenzuela, Brett Bateman, and/or Spencer Miles, or even Trey Yesavage if they focus on hitting their bullpen with a cannon rather than just a slugger.

But while Henderson’s value has regressed, another Gen Z shortstop is coming off his best year at the plate ever. De La Cruz, who posted the first 30/30 start of his career, cleared a double-digit walk rate and With his staggering .500 threshold and improved velocity numbers in 2026, he stands as an excellent player with a realistic chance of being traded. Cincinnati has claimed its spot among baseball’s greatest freebies, finishing in a fearsome 75th to 83rd zone for four consecutive years. With the city’s poor investigation as a destination for a free agent, more ownership will not be given away, the road to the importance of the Russians goes through the techniques and development of the players. De La Cruz is certainly a big win for them in this part, but the little help around him didn’t translate to wins. Sal Stewart offers a glimmer of hope, but he and De La Cruz alone aren’t enough to give Cincy a cornph lineup to compete with the Brewers and Cubs, and there’s a strong argument to be made that they load up on the Reds’ prospect guns and wait until Milwaukee and Chicago crest the wave.

All this, plus a recent article by Jim Bowden Athletic that the Red Sox counted on De La Cruz as a rookie, a design decision the Reds were thinking in a similar way. (The first mention is also that the Red Sox will call up Nationals infielder CJ Abrams, an excellent player in his own right, but whose average weight isn’t as high as Henderson’s or De La Cruz’s, and who comes with a huge question mark defensively.) De La Cruz is one of the true athletic players in the game, blessed with raw power, strong arms, and all the easy metrics of speed and spurt of speed. If there is anything wrong with him, how will he support his huge body in the course of his progress? But so much, so good that De La Cruz played all 162 in 2025 and 160 the year before, with a minor quad strain, and ending it at 143 in 2026.

If the team to the precarious De La Cruz from the Russians, they will have to sell the farm. Fortunately, Boston, who successfully smoothed Story’s offense and gave way to his wobbly arm at second base, has the 24-year-old De La Cruz, a player whose farm reports have been nothing short of spectacular. If the Red Sox want to part ways with him, the 20-year-old Dominican shortstop Franklin Arias ran through both Double-A and Triple-A, bringing home a .323/.400/.557 slash line and a 145 wRC+ between the two levels. His terrific showing in 2026 earned him a rank of 60-FV and no. 2 spot on the Board, where scouting reports rank him “among the top prospects in baseball.” I mean, Arias could be anything, or Elly De La Cruz! Although at 5-foot-11 and 170 pounds, he lacks nearly the same physical tools as De La Cruz.

There are other 25-and-under players in their prime or pre-arbitration years who are starting the rumor mill this winter — Taj Bradley, Zach Neto, and Eury Pérez all have their crowns kicked — but no one offers MVP-level upside for Henderson or De La Cruz. In Henderson’s case, the trade would be a classic change-of-scene gambit in hopes of retrieving a previous swing. De La Cruz believes that the most recent manifestation is not a miracle, but a proof of concept, which the previous one did not. 1 The perspective is absolutely that good. Either would be a seismic move, but one that any team that is serious about the competition should be eagerly exploring.