The Wild Card Series in the books and, on Saturday, MLB’s postseason will continue with the fourth Division Series. It is the best of the five series now involved with travel. Both teams will have the opportunity to play at home, unlike the Wild Card Series. The winners of the division series advance to the best-of-seven championship series, which will determine the league’s World Series representative.
Here are the series division matchups:
AMERICAN COVENANT
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Radio
Chicago White Sox in London Rangers
CIVIL COVENANT
San Diego Padres at Brewers
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Braves defeated Philadelphia in three games in the Wild Card Series. The Padres (over the Chicago Cubs), the White Sox (Houston Astros), and the Yankees (Boston Red Sox) sweep the two games. Friday’s general off-day gives the four winners of the Wild Card Series a little rest before the Division Series.
Here is now the biggest question for each of the Division applicants.
Braves at Dodgers: When will Chris Sale pitch?
Chris Sale is likely to be a National League Cy Young finalist this season and the Braves will have him come out of the bullpen in the bottom four of Game 3 against the Phillies to punch their ticket to the NLDS. That was two days after the 37-year-old had thrown 6 innings and 95 pitches in Game 1. It was Sale’s first shutout since 2011, when he was a reliever for the White Sox. It was the first time he had taken less than three days off since 2018.
On Friday, Braves manager Walt Weiss acknowledged that Sale could not start until Game 3 of the NLDS on Tuesday. A normal rest following his Wild Card Series Game 1 start lined him up for Game 2 of the NLDS on Sunday.
“Not sure,” Weiss said of Sale’s Game 2 availability. “… A lot is going to depend on how Chris feels. You certainly don’t want to risk him and his health. It just happened that he felt great (for Game 3 on Thursday) when he got to the park, and that’s why he was in the game. He had to grind here recently. We erred on the side of giving more rest, if it’s even close.”
The Braves have a small host of starting pitchers on the injured list: Bryce Elder (knee surgery), Reynaldo López (shoulder inflammation), Martin Pérez (back inflammation), Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow surgery), Spencer Strider (elbow inflammation), and Hurston Waldrep (Tommy John surgery). Atlanta is likely to use the bullpen in Game 1 on Saturday. If Sale can’t go into Game 2, either Wild Card Series Game 2 starter Tyler Mahle will pitch on short rest or it will be another bullpen game.
Sale’s start in Game 2 would also line him up for a potential Game 5 on a regular basis. If he can’t start until Game 3, then Sale will only be able to make one start in the NLDS, and without that Atlanta’s best chance to beat the two-time defending World Series champion involves Sale catching the ball as often as possible. Even if Sale can only go 70-75 pitches in Game 2, it’s worth playing him (especially the rookie) and starting Game 5.
Padres at Brewers: Can the Padres take the lead for the bullpen?
What a fun series this will be. The Brewers had the best record in baseball this year and the Padres had the best record in baseball since July 23. The Padres went 41-18 and outscored their opponents by 1.2 points per game in that stretch. Ferdinandus Tatis Jr. San Diego is a turnaround company and a first-inning at-bat against Jacob Misiorowski to start Game 1 on Saturday will be televised.
For the Padres, the road to victory is quite simple. Find a way to lead the bullpen. How they go about getting that lead is quite complicated, but the idea is simple. Collect the lead cobble, then deliver the ball to Mason Miller & Co. San Diego’s bullpen is the best, the scariest bullpen in baseball with Miller at the end, righty Bradgley Rodriguez and lefty Adrian Morejon, and others like Jason Adam and Yuki Matsui showing erratic reading.
“I think both teams will probably play the same game. Get out to an early lead and the bullpen will handle it the rest of the way,” Padres manager Craig Stammen said Friday. “I think both bullpens have a lot of flexibility in who they can use. Right-handed and left-handed pitchers, pitchers who are both equity hitters, and guys who can go a lot of innings. I think you add all of that up, that’s what makes a great bullpen. They have a great guy from the last guy to the first guy. That’s how we feel about our bullpen for the series. Because of our series, it’s going to be a lot.”
The Padres were 66-5 when leading in six innings during the regular season and 72-3 when leading after seven innings. Only the Rays (81-2) had a better record when leading after seven. Rodriguez and Morejon both showed the ability to get six outs if needed, and Miller got four shots in the regular season. They could ask for three wickets to cover five innings on a given night. The Padres can slow down a game like no other team in this field. The bullpen is their superpower.
White Sox at Rangers: Did Chicago put the ball in play enough?
There are several big questions heading into this series. Do the White Sox have enough hitters? Their whole staff is like smoke. Will the Guardians generate enough offense? That issue was a few Octobers. What can we expect from Jose Ramírez? He hasn’t looked José Ramírez-like since returning from hamstring surgery in July. Will Pope Leo step in for some divine intervention? The born-and-raised South Sider would go down hard for the White Sox.
In the end, though, I’ll go back to the hitters, Cleveland’s type of ability to generate them on the mound and the White Sox’s inability to finish them off at the plate. Here are the strikeout rates (as a percentage of batters) since Aug. 3. trade notices that better consider the rosters we’ll see on the field in the ALDS than the actual numbers;
1. Dodgers: 28.2% | 30 Orioles: 26.5% |
2. Guardians: 26.3% | 29 Reds: 26.3% |
3. Phillies: 25.7% | 28 Angels: 26.0% |
4. Yankees: 24.7% | 27 Yankees: 25.3% |
5. Pirates: 25.7% | 26 White Sox: 24.9% |
MLB’s average strikeout rate was 22.1% this season, for reference. Keepers were more comfortable with pitchers than he was all year, and especially after the trade deadline. Same thing with the White Sox hitters. The league averaged much more than that throughout the year, and especially after the trade deadline. On paper, it’s a particularly bad matchup for the White Sox.
For Chicago, the saving grace may be the home run ball. The White Sox have the fifth-most home runs in baseball this year and the seventh-most since the trade deadline. Cleveland’s shooting staff is prone to making hard contact in the air. After the deadline, the staff put in the highest nine barrel rate allowed, and the “barrels” are basically the best possible ones. They are an ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle, and keepers can give them away.
Nothing good happens on offense when a hitter hits and the White Sox hitters hit everyone a lot of the time. Chicago hitters won’t immediately make contact with the machines in the ALDS. To win this series, they will have to do extra-base damage when they make contact, because in an inning to score multiple runs, even one run will be difficult against the Parker Messick/Gavin Williams one-two punch, plus in the Cleveland bullpen.
“They’re definitely going to get their picks,” White Sox manager Venable said on Friday. “We know very well who they are and the challenges we have to beat. We also know what we have to do to beat them. It’s just really hard to do.”
Yankees at Rays: Is New York’s infield up to business?
These two AL East rivals have very different offenses. The Yankees hit the second-most home runs (223) and had the fourth-highest strikeout rate (24.7%) during the regular season. The Rays totaled 22 homers (169) and had the lowest strikeout rate (18.8%). The Yankees are the Bronx Bombers. They are constructed as a ball that rattles around the area. The Rays have superstar power hitter Junior Caminero, but otherwise they put the ball in play and created havoc.
To further drive home the point, here are some regular season numbers showing just how well said radios create havoc;
THEY HIT
1. Rays: 49
2. Brewers: 32
3. Marlins: 31
INFIELD HITS
1. Pirates: 154
2. radius: 143
3. Brewers: 143
Rays players are second (Chandler Simpson), third (Cedric Mullins), and fourth (Taylor Wall) in hits during the regular season. Simpson led all players with 42 infield hits, 11 more than runner-up Otto Lopez. The Yankees use Yankee Stadium’s right field short porch to their advantage by left-handed power hitters. The Rays use the Tropicana Field turf to their advantage by putting the ball on the ground, running like crazy, and forcing the other team to make plays.
New York’s infield 11 averaged a plus-13 in the regular season, so it’s a good defensive unit overall, but it’s prone to mistakes. Third baseman Ryan McMahon throws all season, especially short jump throws to first base. Rookie shortstop George Lombard Jr. committed nine calling errors in 42 games. Second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. he has a tendency to aim wide at first base when covering the bag on bunt plays.
The Rays will test New York’s infield defense this series, especially at home at Tropicana Field, and the key is making the Yankees make the plays they create. Take your outside data and don’t force something that isn’t there with a rushed throw (eg he should have had the ball but made a worse throw) or a bad decision (a foul throw, etc.). The predation of the rays was wrong for them.
“Obviously, with the season and with the off-days leading into the series, it allows you to work on the team’s defense, with different times in the season, it can be a challenge,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said on Friday. “We replicated a lot of stuff in the Red Sox series the other day. We’ll do a team defense in front of every defensive tackle out there today. Obviously, it’s an area we want to play really clean, especially against teams that you know play this type of game when they get opportunities.”