2026 World Series: How the Rays can overcome a 2-0 deficit to beat the Brewers

There were two edge-of-the-seat wins, but the Milwaukee Brewers went 2-0 over the Tampa Bay Rays in the World Series, and two wins from the first championship in franchise history. Historically, teams with a 2-0 lead have reached the best of seven to win the series 83% of the time. Brewers are in the driver’s seat, but they know the job isn’t done, or even close.

“Their team is good.” Brewers manager Pat Murphy said after Game 2. “They’re the biggest team in the American League and I’m well aware of that. I think we’ve got a long way to go, and I know that. We’ve come to Tampa, and we’ve got a long way to go.”

The Series now moves to Tropicana Field and the Rays will try to erase a 2-0 deficit, something that hasn’t happened in the World Series in 30 years. The good news, though: You only have to look back to the last season for the last time the team went down 2-0 in the best-of-seven. It is rare, but hardly unusual, and these rays are very capable.

In 95 attempts, 16 teams have come back from 2-0 deficits in the best series. Six of the 16 occurred before 1980, and only three occurred in 1985. Here are six 2-0 comebacks in the last 40 years:

The last two 2-0 comebacks in the World Series came in the sixth year of the decade. A good omen for radio? I hope it will get better. Tampa needs all the help they can get to beat the Brewers four times in their next five games. Note that those 2004 Red Sox are, of course, the only team in history to erase a 3-0 series deficit.

Game 3 is an absolute must win for the Rays.

The Brewers have won four of their five games since Aug. They lost 10-14 on a road trip west of San Diego and Chavez Ravine. They’ve lost four of their five games since July 8-12, including on the road. He traveled through St. Louis and Pittsburgh. The Brewers had six streaks and four streaks in April. The return of the ray is improbable, not impossible.

Now here’s what needs to happen for the Rays to make that improbable comeback and win the World Series.

1. A clean, unskilled play

The Rays are usually a team that forces opponents to play poorly, and certainly the Brewers played far from clean in the World Series. David Hamilton threw out a third attempt to turn a double into a triple in Game 1. Cooper Pratt homered to start Game 1, which opened the door for Tampa’s four-run lead. It wasn’t a solid two games.

but they stab themselves in the foot again and again. Jonathan Aranda famously dropped a foul crowd in the first inning of Game 1, giving Guilielmo Contreras new life. So you’ll have to hit a two-run inning. Later in the game, Aranda gets a ground ball through the legs, Bill Buckner style. That led to Milwaukee’s third career game.

There have been other mistakes throughout the World Series and the Rays just can’t get the Brewers out of bounds, out of 90 feet, and out of bounds. Time and time again, the brewers made their Rays pay for their mistakes. It’s ugly; Mistakes happen, but Tampa will need to at least limit them going forward, or ideally eliminate them altogether.

“We didn’t play the cleanest baseball game by any stretch,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said after Game 2. “We take pride in doing everything we can to support pitchers and make plays after them. Today might not be our best day.”

2. Get a big start from Freddy Peralta

Those 2-0 comebacks listed above have one thing in common: The starting pitcher was great in Game 3. Last year, Shane Bieber allowed two runs in six innings to spark a Toronto comeback. In 2023, Brandon Pfaadt fired 5 shutout innings for the D-backs. In 1996, David Cone was the Yankees. In 1986, Bob Ojeda was for the Mets.

Freddy Peralta, the ALCS MVP and former BrewerThe offense will have to give the Rays a big start in Game 3. He has been sensational this season, allowing just two runs in 16 innings over three starts and one relief appearance. He was great with the general rays. Since being acquired from the Mets at the trade deadline on Aug. 26, Peralta has a 0.88 ERA in nine starts, one relief appearance, and 50 innings.

“I give Freddy a lot of credit for being a good pitcher and being vulnerable enough to say, ‘I wasn’t comfortable doing something and I want to get back to strength,'” Numma said prior to the World Series. “He took off during the two months he was with us, and he took off in September and took off in October.”

If the Rays are going to make this series, it starts with Peralta. He should pitch well and pitch high in Game 3, too, because the middle of Tampa’s bullpen is sketchy. Two games into the series, the Rays just feel like they don’t have enough weapons to beat the Brewers.

But he wants time. Peralta will start Game 3 and must fix well to make a comeback.

3. some home cooking

Most teams are better at home than on the road and there are a million reasons for that. The roster is shaping up to be their home ballpark. Players have better tools and resources available to them (Trajekt’s launch machine doesn’t travel, for example). They sleep in their beds. They have their wings behind them. On and on.

There are no different radios. At 55-26, they tied the Brewers (who else?) for baseball’s best home run of the regular season. The spokes were built exclusively for the Tropicana Field Bourn turf. He plays on very fast turf, so the Tampa Hitters, and big, put the ball on the ground and run like crazy. That is their domestic advantage. They use the turf expertly.

Now, the flip side to this is that the Brewers had the second best record of their career in baseball during the regular season. They went 48-33 away from American Family Field, one game worse than the Dodgers and their MLB-best 49-32 road mark. If there’s a team that doesn’t scare the Trop, it’s the brewery.

The running differential tells the story. Brewers are jugglers at home and only very good on the road. The teams are great wherever they play, really. The Rays can take solace in the fact that the series now moves to Tampa and will have games 3, 4, and, if necessary, 5 on their literal home turf. If they are going to make a comeback, it starts at home.

“I know our fans are really great and excited to see us come back and kind of ourselves a little bit,” Cash said after Game 2. “I got a really good pitcher going, like they do. I have a lot of confidence in answering this club. I’ve done it all season long, and I’ll continue to do it.”

4. Get a little lucky

Back against the wall, the rays need every break. The pitch was a great spot on the border (and an ABS challenge!). A bloop off the end of the bat just got off (or nasty). A good defender would have made the play clear. Something like that.

It’s better to be lucky than good, but to hit the bullpen four times in five games, the Rays need to be lucky. and good