We are in Week 4 of the fantasy season! In order to find every advantage at this time, the X factor position is a bender. To break it all down, analyst Joel Smyth breaks down eight players in the zone’s consensus grades for the flex, double flex or even third hole WR.
Set & forget
Josh Downs vs
So far this season, with Alec Pierce off the field, Downs has been targeted on 32% of 66 routes. Against the wide range of the Dutch, Lyons was poor, to put it mildly. To put things in perspective, the Cardinals have allowed 34 fantasy PPG to WRs, leading among defensemen.
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The Warriors have allowed 39 through the game.
Surprisingly, Washington’s run defense has improved this season, forcing the offense into heavy passing volume in the first few weeks. The chickens will remain focused on the run, but when they shoot, it will go to the Downs.
Bhayshul Tuten vs
Confidence in Tuten is growing and they expect big numbers. This offense is built around the outside running game, where Tuten ranks first among RBs in outside runs (D Gap) with 16 carries in total. That should help him against Cincinnati’s defense, which was vastly improved after trading 10th overall to pick DT Dexter Lawrence. The meta-line trends all the favor of the Jaguars running back, while a potential uptick at receiver could bring him to another level.
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After what we’ve seen in the last three games, Tuten has this shot as a great fantasy RB2 the rest of the way.
Slow Starts
Michael Wilson NYG vs
Last season, after averaging 25 receiving yards per game, Wilson suddenly had 18 targets, 15 receptions and 185 yards against the San Francisco 49ers. Crazy fluke game!
Unfortunately it wasn’t.
The next week, with too many people adding to him but not starting, Wilson had 15 targets, 10 receptions and 118 yards. But I don’t want to make the mistake again after the 17th goal of the day versus the 49ers by accident. He is now fourth in targets behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Chris Olave — AKA, the top three players in receiving fantasy points. Wilson has been a WR5 since he broke out in Week 11 last year and hasn’t changed enough since then for me to sit him here.
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Braelon Allen vs
The first backup RB to command serious defensive attention this season is Braelon Allen, coming to save your roster. I believe Isaiah Davis will have his fair share of work here, but 0% of RB touches this season, with Allen handling 27%. Allen has two things going for him: one, the Jets offense doesn’t look like 2026 in 2025 or before, he ranks 16th in scoring offense and 16th in RB fantasy points in the first month. Two, the defense of Chicago was subjected to the match, allowing four yards through the gates. Allen can be in the starting lineup immediately.
Twin-flex Starts
CAR Jameson Williams vs
It was a slow start, to say the least. After taking an in-depth look at Williams this week, I was surprised at how little has changed since last season. Sam LaPorta’s presence is felt, but William is still in the top-10 on the road in almost identical roles, and he still has the same offensive core in Detroit.
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A lot of small things added up to the receiver’s only snap: a reception that ended up less than a yard from the end zone, a big drop in potential 50+ yard catch and more. The Panthers are giving their top two cornerbacks, Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, a big shot at putting the IR before Sunday Night Football.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs
Indianapolis struggled against the ground game early on and it looks like the Croskey-Merritt matchup is still the easiest. The volume was solid, sure enough for the second-string position, and the scoring would have looked much better if his 50-yard TD in Week 3 hadn’t been called back for an illegal turnover. There is a risk with the lack of receiving that he offers, but it is just enough to slide into the ranks in the deeper leagues.
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Booby Traps
Emeka Egbuka GB vs
Sadly, Egbuka looks to continue its production from the middle of the 2025 season rather than the first half. With Baker Mayfield out on Sunday, Tampa Bay will be looking to rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels to step up to the plate. In college, Daniels only averaged 6.8 yards per dropback, which would only be about halfway if he replicated those same numbers against NFL defenses. Plus, I don’t expect many drops in the first place. A lot of Egbuka is going to accept that at the beginning of the season, which was already half way through the game.
Ollie Gordon II vs
The Vikings’ defense has dominated under Brian Flowers to start the season, ranking second in first downs allowed per game with 15. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ offense averages 15 first downs per game, ranking 30th. Yes, the Vikings played opponents (GB, CHI, TB) like the Dolphins offense. What do dolphins look like?
It’s scary, to say the least, and Gordon can work with Jaylen Wright if he returns to play on Sunday.