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Tampa Bay Rays (1) London Guardians (2), 6:00 PM ET
TB: Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA, 116 DRA-);
CLE: Johnny Wholestaff (36-26, 3.54 ERA, 94 DRA-).
Nick Martínez scored two runs in 3 innings in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Yankees, and when you scan those numbers, you’re likely thinking, “Wow, sure.” It’s Nick Martinez, after all. He’s not the kind of guy who’s going to tempt the manager to take him out too long. The veterans put together the worst strikeout rate among eligible starters, and just as much. His country was the fourth worst team. He throws 92 mph in 96-mph leagues, but he doesn’t look like a breaking ball wizard who can roll the ball around bats; Throwing the ball two-thirds of the time and rushing the changeup the rest of the time, he lacks an elite hunting level and allows the most contact of any season starter in baseball. It’s a formula that shouldn’t work, and that’s why he has 116 DRAs to go with his 3.10 ERA.
A regression candidate? Sure, but maybe not as much as you think. Since returning from Japan, Martínez has amassed more than 700 innings of 3.53-ERA baseball, much of it coming with no idea what day or what side he’ll be working on next. It’s so easily overlooked that it doesn’t feel like it’s hurting at all, but it’s actually one of the big pimples of our time. I don’t like Blake Snell, who gnaws until he walks or hits someone, and not like the newer versions of Robbie Ray and Framber Valdez, who only gnaw until they lose someone. Martínez scrapes the edge of the plate, but no one is good enough. The voice has the highest rate among the primary in the shadow zone around the plate, and also the sixth-highest zone as a whole, representing the edges of those voices on the right side of the shadow.
Also don’t be afraid to go down to the middle of 92 sometimes, which will lead you to adapt to this behavior, given the arm slot and the peak of confidence, when the ton goes. But Martínez doesn’t act like a deep slot, back-oriented pitcher. First, he can’t generate enough movement with his speed to completely miss the bat, like Justin Verlander’s peak, but also, he won’t try to climb the ladder to generate a whiff like Logan Henderson. Instead of working north-south, he actually tends to the west-west, using the dromone to break inside the left and run down on the right. Because of the backspin it generates, batsmen see those pitches coming and contact, but often under the ball, and quite significantly.
A few months ago I wrote about the need for two words to describe fly balls: those in the dangerous 26-to-35 degree angle band, and “high flies” in more than 36-passion, which often fail to clear the wall even though they are difficult shots. Martínez allowed 226 runs this season, and the full two-thirds were of the latter description. Only four starters out of 155 with 1,500 pitches have seen a lower wOBA on fly ball contact than Martínez did (.189). A fly ball that cannot leave the yard is the best contact a pitcher can allow, as far as he can control it.
The question will be whether that approach can work in sports where the lineups are not representative samples. This is true, as it is true of every pitcher, and of every hitter. He also has the same defense in the baseball outfield behind him as he did in May, so the odds are slightly down in his favor.
I started with Cleveland, we will give all eight of them in the next section.