ALCS Game 5 Preview: The stars are out

Tampa Bay Rays (1) Cleveland at Rangers (2), 5:00 PM ET

TB: Rasmussen drew (16-5, 2.67 ERA, 75 DRA-);
CLE: Parker Messick (12-9, 2.56 ERA, 77 DRA-);

This matchup was meant to be the first time Foster Griffin faced off against Cleveland pitcher Drew Rasmussen for Tampa before the skies opened and MLB was forced – after too long a delay – to postpone the playoff game. The Rays opted to keep Rasmussen in Game 5 of their schedule with five days of full rest rather than move him to Game 4 with four days, the Rangers moved Griffin up to Game 4 to bulk up their pitcher, and that leaves us with a matchup between two pitchers who will each end up in the top-five in AL Cy Young voting. Not a bad consolation prize.

Let’s start with Mexico, as he is more of a wildcard, despite his rookie star season. Velo Mexico has been good this season, but his start has been pretty poor: he’s handled just 11 IP and allowed seven runs in three starts. Most of the eyebrow-raising effort comes in walks, with a whopping eight free passes delivered to host 53 Rams. Not all that bad in Game 2, but Tampa still hit him pretty hard. His use of pitch is almost the same as it always is;

The uptick in Mexico’s rising usage was largely due to Tampa’s use of a number of beautifully pitched pitchers against whom the young left-hander is more ball-heavy. And he threw plenty of heat into Game 2; The rays simply did not expel them. As you may notice, a large part of the voices of Mexico is to move to arms. This is the part that makes him unique; Dominating the ball with the best of the best young players is not just a feature for Mexico. He throws a variety of breaking ball shapes, from slow curves to hard saws, but none are particularly nasty.

At his best, Messick is essentially a funky lefty who actually throws 95 mph. His arm angle (41º) is actually higher than average, but because his delivery features a fairly extreme “sits” position over the hip of his back mound, his release point is below average. Pair that with a hoppy fastball and you get a 25% whiff rate. The change then gives him the right-handed hitter’s solution, and mixed breaking stuff against commanding matchups. It works.

Messick will be a crucial change in this game. As mentioned earlier, Tampa didn’t chase their fastball(s) in Game 2, but they chased their whole bunch – the result was Mexico having a hard time throwing anywhere near the zone. Since he doesn’t have a changeup, Messick is too dependent on his pitch, which is good, but not enough to knock the team into the playoffs.

Rasmussen, for his part, was pretty good in Game 1, though nowhere near the death star the Yankees saw in the ALDS. Even before the day Patrick Bailey chased him down in the seventh inning, the Guardians had already done their share of offensive hits, plus a solo homer by Chase DeLauter in the sixth; Cleveland’s average exit against Rasmussen in Game 1 was a whopping 94.3 mph. Similarly to Messick, Rasmussen’s game was only in his solitary start of the series, as is usually the case;

Rasmussen does all that well, but what really thrives on his back is his ability to forge a crackling sound bordering on well-oiled short-form movements. Tampa vinegar shapes the shape and speed of its drone according to ram and location; He places the four-foot seam and sinker at the front and attacks from all sides of the plate. He is especially good at digging in front of the door for pitches called against lefties. Rasmussen has it all: fastball utility, velocity, a great changeup, command, control, and he can spin the ball even if he doesn’t make his plan. Potential weakness for Cleveland to gain: Rasmussen is pretty poor at holding runners. Two guards were trying to sneak 1 into the game, one was successful, the other not so much.

I would expect Rasmussen to go for his changeup more often at some point in this game, as Cleveland was quite aggressive at the plate in Game 1. I would also expect Rasmussen to be generous with the leash while holding it together. Kevin Cash’s impressive run of form helped, but Rasmussen still averaged 25 tackles and 102 starts in these playoffs. With this second power hitting four straight games and Tampa’s bullpen not being what some think it is, expect Cash to give him a vote of confidence in this game if he deserves it…as long as Tampa can get him a lead, that is.