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Tampa Bay Rays (1), New York Yankees (4), 8:00 PM ET
TBR: Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA, 116 DRA-);
NYU: Max Fried (5-5, 2.80 ERA, 79 DRA-).
This is the first season of Martínez’s MLB career in which he has not made a single appearance out of the bullpen. The distribution of his career over his nine years in the majors is impressive: 160 games as a starter, 151 in relief, 34 starts, two shutouts, nine saves, and a close 63-65 career record, all with a four-year NPB stint, neatly placed in the middle of his career. Over the years, Martínez has been the right team to start at times, but not dominant enough — and too expensive as a weight lifter — for anyone to fully commit to him.
Until this year, that is. Martínez set a career-high for 2026 innings pitched, had the fewest walks among the qualifiers, and carried a sub-2.00 ERA into June. He also went back to normal the rest of the way, as expected. DRA is not surprised with him; Martínez is a pitcher who sits at 92 mph and whose strikeout rate has sunk in years. (It reaches a suspiciously low 15.1% in 2026.) It’s hard to make a living in the majors without hitting a lot of people. Martínez manages this in a way that, while not excelling at home, his run prevention speaks to how good his command is.
Speaking of command, that is – without any skill – the name of Martínez’s game: the command of the sterling various voices. Unlike many smart pitchers without big stuff, however, Martínez doesn’t smash seventeen different ball shapes, but instead relies on the classic fastball trio and complements them with a fantastic parachute changeup. Martínez will send two commissioners, four commissioners and lumberjacks, all three to both left and right. He uses his two pitchers very well to get in front of the door that calls for lefties. The ball is on the side of the fellers; as long as they are out of the shooting range. He also sometimes mixes in curveballs and/or joints.
Martínez pitched against the Yankees barely two weeks ago and pitched pretty well, even though he lost some serious luck. He kept his changeup on the bag for the first innings in that game, but don’t expect him to do the same here, because he probably didn’t throw 24 batters and 94 pitches – if Freddy Peralta only allowed 18 batters at 97 mph, Martínez might not even get to that.
Max Fried, on the other hand, will almost certainly have a chance to see the third row. Free agent contracts always have potential for upside, but the veteran lefty has asked for almost everything the Yankees have asked for in the Bronx in his first two years: a steady frontline starter enough to finish in the top five in Cy Young voting for a full season. Fried is one of the most elite pitchers of his generation—perhaps that’s why he doesn’t produce other phenomenal strikeouts, but his 3.01 career ERA slips under the radar at times. It fits perfectly in the Bronx, and it’s roughly more equal than New York’s no. I began II.
It should also be noted that Friedland is one of my favorite pitchers to watch. It can be hard to throw on the left, but he always finds a way to succeed in the complex quality of his command and an absolutely outlier talent for spinning. This is evident in Friedland’s superb curve, one of the few 74-mph curves in the majors today that can reasonably claim to be a true finisher, and one that will often look right. It also shows in an incredible variety of slide faces, which lefties see a lot of, and in his true peak cut, which he already uses on the inside with tremendous success.
Friedman is more team-oriented in his practice than Martínez: the lefty gets a heavy dose of ball sinkers and teams, righties a more varied mix that includes plenty of changes. Both hands in the top zone of fastballs will see four seams to change eye level. But Fried’s real game lies in the east-west style; When fastballs go deep in the inner third, it opens up the outside middle of the plate and becomes a nightmare to handle. The Rays, with their heavy contact approach, present a unique stylistic challenge in what will be the second meeting between the team and the pitcher in the last two weeks. In the final faceoff, Friedlander dominated the Rays for six innings before the seventh, when he took a ground ball with one out. Considering what the Yankee infield was like in Game Two, that would make me nervous if I threw them out.
Finally, the incredibly interesting part of the Fried vs. Rays matchup is how the running game will unfold, if it unfolds at all. Tampa likes to run, but the notable athleticism is arguably the best pitcher in the world and one of the best runners in keeping control: he’s only allowed 48 stolen bases in his entire career (and in poor success) against a whopping 37 pickoffs. If Chandler Simpson gets on base, the staredown between him and Fried will match the old Western movies.