The midway point of the Champions League is upon us, and already the pressure is starting to build on some of the biggest clubs in Europe. For some – the likes of Bayern Munich, Inter and Manchester City – the coming days will be about scratching the table and establishing a grip on one of the coveted eight berths.
All the more significant are those teams who are legitimately worried about whether they can reach the top 24. On current form, Manchester United are certainly among them, and their home game against Roma threatens to be critical for the Champions League’s fortunes. Perhaps the future of his manager too.
How long can it last?
A little more than eight years ago, it seemed only logical to log the rest of Michael Carrick’s time with Manchester United hours in charge. Back-to-back defeats to Como and Bournemouth, each by a three-point margin, saw the club hover around the drop zone in both the Premier League and Champions League. Club boss Bruno Fernandes has publicly questioned Carrick’s policies, fueling a greater sense of rebellion in the wake of centre-back Lisandro Martinez by turning both the barrels on those in charge of recruiting and signing players.
Surprisingly, Carrick supported it, part owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe and the rest of the hierarchy concluding that the manager, who had led to the third last season in Britain, deserved the time to send the ship to this listing. In many of the events on Saturday, he claimed that assessment. At Stamford Bridge, the Red Devils had a much better first half, springing up to blitz Chelsea on the counter. The only slight problem, one clearly of Carrick’s control, was that they didn’t put the ball in the net. Then the middle of the United States seemed to open the doors of the Starship Enterprise to send Morgan Rogers to score the opener, and all was equalized by a 14-minute Lisandro Martinez-authority header loss.
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You can’t really hold the manager responsible, not when he’s tried so many coaches and failed to curb his appetite for United’s destruction. Then again, it’s not like you can rob players during half time. If it’s a dangerous situation, there’s not much you can do but start back in the dugout and I hope against reason that Eddie Howe (or anyone else) couldn’t run through this squad in the way his predecessors did.
Now you’d like to doubt that Manchester United are on the brink of existential danger — relegation to the Championship seems a long shot — but they are in danger of being a few million worse off from their European campaign. Lose at home to Rome and they would have three points when half of the Easter League was played. Still to play: Toys and Villarreal away, RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich at home. That makes it a critical opportunity against Roma, whose free-scoring attack should be licking their lips on Saturday lunchtime. This has the effect of the inhuman end of Clodius, who began with such a promise.
Carrick sees it differently. “It’s a funny perception,” he said on Monday, insisting he doesn’t feel like a coach with two games left to keep his job. “You can look at different things and think different things. The players to the club, to me among themselves – they don’t ask. We have to act better, we can decide better, but it’s not a job at all.”
And yet, as much as the perception of Carrick’s group could change quickly, so could he look into the game as to why the United hierarchy had stood by their man eight weeks ago. Has the manager made a long-term commitment or have his employers just concluded that there is no point in making a change before the three games before the international break? Roma and Aston Villa will fail and we will surely find out.
Do you need to work under the belt?
Even in the aftermath of the Derby defeat on Halloween night, there didn’t seem to be much doom and gloom between the ranks. A three-point deficit to league leaders Sabino is certainly retrievable for the defending champions, and while they have just three points from their first three games, a man-of-the-match against Shakhtar Donetsk eased any lingering sense of crisis surrounding Champions League progress.
And yet the mood of the music emanating from the center of the blue and black San Siro paints a far more worrying picture. When head coach Cristiana Chivu was asked about the “approach and determination” of his side, senior center back Alessandro Bastoni spoke of an “inadequate” mentality and Nicolas Barella was more damning of his lot. “We didn’t have the right attitude from the beginning of the season, and it’s a negative thing,” he said, as his side fought against the fatigue as much as the opponent.
All of this with Milan scoring three goals from five shots could be something of a 0.57 expected goal in the first half of the weekend. Are there problems at all with Inter or is this team lacking a number of senior players, including Lautaro Martinez, whose absence in the qualifiers prompted Chivu to unsuccessfully experiment with Marco Thuram as a lone striker?
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Martinez will be missing on the trip to Feyenoord, but even without the captain, Bastoni, John Stones and Curtis Jones, the quality needed in Inter ranks to win well in Rotterdam (especially if Chivu brings Federico Dimarco back into the XI). Whatever their attitude may be, it hasn’t stopped them from racking up an extremely impressive 2.5 non-expected penalty goals per game. Since he did not have Europe, many rebounds go in a different direction for this team to have seven more points and think about returning to the last 16. Without wanting to go too far on this Leslie Nielsen, there is nothing to see here.
Also, when the pipers and coaches start talking in such apocalyptic terms, it’s much more likely to be, well, the apocalypse. Or at least its Champions League Easter equivalent of an unseeded berth in the knock out playoffs/punishment round. Moreover, some points were dropped against Como and Atalanta.
Can Kane lift Bayern’s injury woes?
Last time we suggested that Arsenal’s depth was key against Bayern Munich late on and, just as the clock had stopped for this column, we were vindicated as Viktor Gyokere’s provider-turned-declan Rice was the late winner. Ultimately, in the closing stages, all Vincent Kompany could do to turn his attack away was a flurry of Luis Diaz and youngster Lennart Karl. A fortnight later, even that upgrade from Bayern’s position found themselves on the road to Madrid.
Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Borussia Dortmund came at the expense of Ismael Saibar and Serge Gnabry, both of whom will still be out for some time. Jamal Musiala is also sidelined with a thigh injury and Diaz has only just returned to the field as he recovers from a hamstring injury. Bayern’s best-case scenario is that Michael Olise, who also went out earlier in the weekend, can play in some capacity, but sporting director Max Eberl described the Frenchman’s position as “day-to-day”.
If Olise is not fit, it is possible that the attacking midfield three will be Karl and the two left backs, Alphonso Davies and Nathan Brown. The medium would be enough forward to connect everything together. A Ballon d’Or winner. Harry Kane’s headline contribution to Der Klassiker could have been missed in the 1-0 penalty shootout, but No. Dayot Upamecano finished this game with 9 assists and 0.43 total expected assists. Remarkably forward for a center who wasn’t even that far ahead of his season average of 0.32. 97th cent for creation. You will not be surprised to know that the orders are in the 99th cent for shots and xG.
Since his arsenal has been caught in the last round of Champions League games, you can take away Kane’s shooting chances, you can also take away the elite support cast, but he can still find a way to put one on the plate for his teammate.