Dodgers vs. Brewers NLCS preview: Have Jackson Chourio and Co. Did they match enough to take down Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers?

We said goodbye to the Phillies and Cubs, then the Braves and Padres. What does that leave? The No. 1 and No. 2 seed in the National League in a rematch of last year’s championship series.

It’s Dodgers vs. Brewers with a trip to the Series on the line. Let’s break it down.

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Dodgers: LA’s star-studded rotation led the day against Atlanta in the NLDS, with a 1.69 ERA in 21 innings of work. Tarik Skubal (Game 1) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Game 3) were sensational. Tyler Glasnow (Game 4) was erratic but effective. Only Blake Snell (3 innings in Game 2) missed. The Dodgers’ offense is aging enough to support a hitting staff, thanks to the seasonal long balls of veterans Kiké Hernández, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy. Not emphatic, by any means resonant, but the Dodgers got the job done in Round 1 of their three searches.

Brewers: Milwaukee snapped a 12-game road losing streak with its Game 4 NLDS-clinching win at Petco Park. That would be yet another sign that this Brewers team is for real, ready for the World Series for the second time in franchise history and the first since 1982. Run prevention, as always, won the day for Milwaukee against San Diego, allowing a blazing 2.5 runs per game. That happened despite a shaky defensive display against the odds – the Brewers committed five errors over four games. Not exactly a dominant showing from the offense, but he kept Milwaukee’s lineup in line and caused enough chaos to send the Padres into a hard-fought series.

This duo went a very poor 3-for-29 with 11 strikeouts and no extra-base hits against the Braves. But somehow, Smith and Ohtani looked even worse than the combined lineup. It’s hard to see the Dodgers if these two crucial teams continue to compete in that way.

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Ohtani is certainly playing at less than 100 percent, having never fully recovered from the litany of late-season ailments that pushed him to the IL for the first time in his Dodgers career. He looks awkward, unsure and uncomfortable at the plate. He rushes into it without questioning his preconceived notions, which in turn put him in bad company and lead to bad results. The four-time MVP is still clearly capable — he’s less than a year removed from his all-time greatest NLCS Game 4 one-hit shutout — but the magic feels less likely to come from this version of Ohtani.

Smith has more wonderful stories. He spent about three months at the right time, but on the 1st of Sept. He came back and looked like himself over the last month (.948 September OPS). But its mechanics — at best, the epitome of do-it-yourself-perfect — are completely out of whack right now. His presence behind the plate still provides oodles of value, but this isn’t the game-changing force he clocked in last year’s World Series-winning blowout.

The 22-year-old had just three hits in Milwaukee’s NLDS victory, but all three came in big moments. A game-tying, two-run homer off Robbie Ray in Game 1, a walk-off single against Mason Miller in Game 2 and an earlier, laser-beam single in Game 4. But while that opportunity is amazing, a little more production from Chourio feels like the easiest way for Milwaukee’s offense to match the Dodgers. Caesar is easily the Brewers’ most talented pitcher and is already leading the franchise’s home runs season after season. Last year, Chourio hit the only long ball against LA in the NLCS and was one of two pitchers with at least three hits in that series. For the team to go deep in October, special players must do special things. There cannot be a more special talent on the field (besides a healthy Ohtani) than this man.

It’s a Dodgers vs. Brewers rematch with a trip to the Series on the line.

(Dillon Minshall / Yahoo Sports)

Dodgers: Starting pitching + something else

The Dodgers’ rotation, at this point, feels as solid as any unit in the game. If LA’s offense continues to crumble, that would be enough. They need either (1) a few more hitters to step up, (2) a total lockdown showing from the bullpen or (3) near perfection from an already stellar rotation. Option No. 1 is an easy, more likely route to victory. The Dodgers have so many talented, proven October bats that it feels inevitable that one or more of Ohtani, Smith, Teoscar Hernández, Mookie Betts or Andy Page will fire. How many they do and how much will likely determine whether the Dodgers reach the World Series for the third straight year. But option No. 2 is also a possibility. Or, if Skubal and Yamamoto both start to dominate in both of them, it would be enough.

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In the 2025 regular season, Milwaukee had the lowest insurance rate in the MLB at 25.5%. But in the NLCS loss against the Dodgers, that number skyrocketed to 34.5%. Come October, some jump in the hunting rate is expected; the best pitchers throw harder and more often. However, that’s a high stakes, and the Brewers’ offense has sunk.

This season, the Brewers once again led the game in strikeout rate at 26.8%, setting up a consistent force against a steady streak in the NLCS. Los Angeles’ staff placed first in the hunting rate at 33.1%. Skubal, Snell and Yamamoto all in the 85th cent.

Exposure to pitches outside of the strike zone, especially early in the counts, would be a total game changer for this underrated powerhouse. Doing so would force Dodgers pitchers into a hitter count, run a higher pitch count and bring the bullpen into play. That’s what happens with loss. Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, Andrew Vaughn, Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick and Brice Turang were all 20 percent in the rat hunt. We need someone to go. And Milwaukee’s most athletic talent, Chourio, has to stay disciplined.

In the NLDS, Los Angeles used Snell in Game 2 and Yamamoto in Game 3, but will likely switch those two for the NLCS. That feeling could have a nice trickle-down effect if Snelles and Glasnow can’t work deep into games. The separation of Snell and Glasnow against Atlanta meant that the Los Angeles bullpen didn’t have to cover a multitude of innings in the latter days. But with Skubal and Yamamoto making two starts each in their streak, the Dodgers won’t have that luxury this time around. No similarity of length can be compared to Pindar’s criticism.

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The 2025 Brewers pitching staff against Los Angeles looked completely outmatched throughout the short NLCS. But while their lineup is far better this season, Milwaukee’s offense still operates with the same high-contact, low-power style. This strategy worked pretty well against a good, not great, Padres staff, but this Dodgers team is a different beast. Milwaukee’s run prevention apparatus, at this point, has proven itself capable of keeping the base and games close, no matter who is on the mound. But the Brewers can’t win 0-0 ballgames.

He closed the gap.

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Last year, Milwaukee’s offense was a helpless pitching staff against Los Angeles, while the Ohtani-led Dodgers’ lineup was overshadowed against the Braves. But this group of aging Dodgers position-players looks shakier than ever, and the Brewers’ bats are all matched. To win the series, Milwaukee will need to win at least one game started by Skubal or Yamamoto. It’s a tough task, but I think they’re up for the fight and Chourio has enough pixie dust to knock off a big baseball, a badass juggernaut in what should be a memorable battle.

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