Three weeks into the fantasy season, getting excuses starts to get a little harder. One bad game? Fine. Two games? We can still talk in patience. By Week 4, though, we have enough information to start asking whether what we have accomplished is actually what we have.
For running backs, I manage more than touching. Seventeen gates may look great on the map, but what kind of gates are they? Is the player down on third down? Does it take a leap? Is football getting around the finish line? Is the offense effective enough scoring opportunities?
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So this week the Panic Meter begins.
The thresholds remain the same: No Panic, Partial Panic, Panic or Coping Corner. All four of these 2 year old running backs have faltered in some way. He was just not disappointed for the same reasons.
Omarion Hampton: SOME tumult
Portulata keep me with Omarion Hampton in tow. The rest almost drives the ceiling.
Through three games, Hampton has 50 carries for 193 yards and two touchdowns. There is enough volume to keep the game itself. The problem lies in kind it takes work.
Hampton caught 32 passes in just nine games as a rookie. Through three games this season, he has two catches on three targets. Alec Ingolds caught three passes for 35 yards in Week 3 alone. Hampton has fewer receptions through three weeks than a fullback in one game;
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Week 3 made the anxiety worse. Hampton played just 27 of 64 snaps and ran for six touchdowns. Keaton Mitchell had 23 hits and 15 runs while Kimani Vidal handled much of the offensive work. Hampton saw only one of the seven targets run.
The Rockets are starting to split this backfield into three jobs. Hampton is the primary early runner, Mitchell gives them speed and Vidal gets valuable pass breaks. That taking the ceiling of the fantasy managers took off and counted.
Being offended doesn’t help. Los Angeles is 0-3 and scored 14, 14 and 16 points, respectively. Even a safe task only goes to the finish-line when the team rarely gets there.
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Some I am in a panic. Hampton is still averaging more than 17 touchdowns per game and has 50 carries and 68 rushing yards, so he’s still on the floor. What has changed is the ceiling.
Fantasy managers have now released three breakdowns and now they all have a first-down back roll.
Marcus Jeanty: SOME tumult
Ashton Jeanty represents almost the opposite problem.
The role is excellent. He had 76 touchdowns through three games, 63 carries and 16 targets, and 83% of his snaps in Week 3. If you could show me what he put up in August, I’d love it.
The production was not up to par.
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Jeanty has 266 yards on 63 carries — just 3.3 yards per attempt — with no rushing touchdowns. After opening with 102 yards on 23 carries, he has 104 rushing yards over 40 carries the last two weeks. He also dropped three passes in Week 2 and missed a goal on his first two carries.
What stood out most was the lack of explosive tackles and rushing we saw from him as a rookie.
Mike Washington Jr. gave us a sharp contrast in Week 3. Jeanty’s longest run on 19 carries was 12 yards. Washington has five carries for 54 yards, including a 36-yard touchdown.
I’m not worried about Washington stealing the backfield. He only played 17% of the kicks. I’m concerned that Jeanty is getting everything we want from a workload perspective and still hasn’t consistently looked like he’s worth as a fantasy player.
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Las Vegas is 3-0 and averaging 29.3 points per game. Blame efficient scoring chances. Jeanty has two receiving touchdowns and is still averaging 18.4 PPR points, but his 32.7-point opener carries a lot of that number. Since then it has scored 10.3 and 12.3, respectively.
And so I remain in a state of terror. The workload is stronger to increase the level of terror, but I need to break the explosive plays and tackling to come back before I am comfortable looking at Jeanty as the elite difference maker of the fantasy players.
Quinshon Judkins: NO PANIC
Quinshon Judkins was not good. He didn’t even give me a reason to change the rating.
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Through three games, Judkins has 42 yards, nine receptions for 53 yards and no touchdowns. It is about 3.0 yards per carry. No one drew him expecting efficiency to carry fantasy value.
His price comes from the work of Cleveland’s pass rusher, and that part remains intact.
Judkins handled 18 of the Browns’ 19 running back carries in Week 3 and finished with 70 rushing yards. Raheim Sanders has taken some passing work while Cleveland has been chasing points lately, but Sanders has only four carries all season. Jaleel McLaughlin barely played and Dylan Sampson was on injured reserve.
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The setup is pretty straightforward. Judkins works as a morning-down rushing offense, averaging 18 points per game. The ceiling is limited receiving and touchdown opportunities will determine a lot of his best fantasy weeks.
For me no trepidation lingers.
I don’t want to be profane. Usage means it still matches the account you’ve described. A rolling-based RB2 can either swing you 15 to 20 touches and need touchdowns to push you further. I haven’t changed the player in three games or played a role well enough for myself.
TreVeyon Henderson: TOTAL PANIC
TreVeyon Henderson is the one I’m most concerned about. He missed Week 1 with an ankle injury, returned in Week 2 and immediately gave fantasy managers hope with 16 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown.
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Then they pulled the plug on Week 3.
Henderson scored 21 to Rhamondre Stevenson’s 32. Henderson had a narrow 9-8 edge in goal, but Stevenson led 3-1 in targets and handled more work downfield. Across Henderson’s two active games, he has 25 touches compared to Stevenson’s 18, but Henderson has only one target.
So yes, Henderson can take this slingshot on carries and still break the shoulders of more fantasy value carries.
Now, put that role within a Patriots offense of nearly 12 points per game. New England has scored 30 points in three weeks, the offensive line is dealing with injuries, and Drake Maye has worked to keep the offense on the schedule. Henderson is being asked to create fantasy value without a certain receiving role or power in the backfield.
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We know we can create explosive stories. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry as a rookie, threw for 911 yards and scored four touchdowns of at least 50 yards.
The problem is how much he needs these games now.
You can’t build a fantasy week around expecting a 40-yard run. That’s Panic for me. The talent is there, but the role isn’t worth it, and the offense doesn’t show enough to cover it.
Henderson can still save your week with one play, but New England gives him little else.