The 2016 NFL season is approaching and the Yahoo Fantasy Ultra Playbook has everything you need to know before your draft, giving you the tools and analysis to crush the competition. Among the profiles of this analysis is Joel Smyth WR player. Below is a peek at some of the 25+ wide profiles in the Ultra Playbook, including ceiling and risk metrics for each. If you subscribe to Ultra, there are close to 150 game boards to digest.
For a preview of what Ultra subscribers have in store with The Playbook, including a snapshot of our sleepers, breakouts, strategy tips, player profiles and more, it’s here.
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roof: If things fall in their favor, how big can they hit in 2026?
Risk: Subjective ranking based on injuries, surrounding injuries, coaching changes, how proven a player is, age, and other things that introduce uncertainty.
Luther Burden III, Bear (ADP: 59)
In a small-to-medium sample size, Onus was a fantasy WR1 as a rookie on a per-play basis. It’s almost guaranteed to see a major increase in said snaps with DJ Moore out of the picture, making the volume uptick less predictable and more expected. The connection with Caleb Williams, especially considering he was a rookie, was tremendous, with significant increases in stats such as passer rating and target rate downfield compared to the QB average. As this young core grows in an already successful offense, his ability to play load could make him the first of many options. Inguen has been miserable in camp, but he should be available to play in Week 1, just like with a little more risk.
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The roof: 8/10
Risk: 7/10
KC Conception, Browns (ADP: 127)
Over 40% of Round 1 WRs in the last decade have finished top-36 in fantasy as a rookie. The draft may have a tougher road in Cleveland, but a talent in the final round of your draft is worth it. KC has been incredible as a 19-year-old freshman in college and an all-around threat as a rookie in the NFL, similar to his time at Texas A&M. If it’s a surprise out of the Browns’ QB room, Conception may be the biggest benefactor.
The roof: 6/10
Risk: 6/10
Josh Downs, Colts (109)
Josh Downs’ potential breakout season basically all comes down to him playing in more than three-receiver sets. In 2025, 81% of Downs’ targets came on routes from the slot, tops in the NFL. During his young career, he never played much since the WR slot was taken away for the second TE outfield, severely limiting his impact in fantasy. He is talented, but he needs to be more on the field. In games with 70%+ shooting during his career, he becomes a useful PPR piece with over 13 PPG. The departure of Michael Pittman Jr. will open up that potential in 2026, especially if Alec Pierce is not %1 before Week 1. The action of Keenan Allen is scary for the goals of the competition, but he is not expected to replace Downs in 2-WR kills, which is the most important thing.
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The roof: 7/10
Risk: 6/10
Mike Evans.
After 12 years in Tampa Bay, Evans finds himself with Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy in pursuit of one more top fantasy season. The vet has missed 17 of his last 34 games, with hamstring injuries the main red card on his profile. Evans still commanded the roll when healthy last season and can take full advantage of a QB who now has more yards per attempt than any QB in recent memory. The first discussion has him shining as the team’s WR1, as the combination of red-zone work and the 49ers top-10 offense is a dream for those who buy into Evans. Not many receivers produce continuously for 33 years, but not many receivers show the longevity he has over 12 seasons.
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The roof: 8/10
Risk: 8/10
Zay Flowers, Ravens (36).
Zay Flores was a borderline fantasy WR1 last season with Lamar Jackson and he’s developing like that. He’s had steady growth through three career seasons and 2026 looks bright for his first WR1 season. Declan Doyle will be the X factor. Todd Monken was good in Baltimore as a player, but those Bears OC’s are now shot at calling plays, providing some hope and potential that the passing volume doesn’t advance to 32, as he did in 2025. If Doyle brings an offense like Chicago’s, Flowers can benefit in a big way after a season where his receiving efficiency has rivaled some of the best in the league. If the red scroll comes with it, see.
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The roof: 8/10
Risk: 5/10
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Even as the top WR on the team with weekly fantasy points, Harrison failed to crack the top 36 receivers. There are some positives to look at – his usage in the red zone, his numbers in a healthy shortstop with Jacoby Brissett and his extended route stick. Although he didn’t live up to the high expectations early in his career, it doesn’t mean he won’t have a classic 3 WR breakout year. His just journey may be more difficult than most. He could use a new coaching staff closer to his Ohio State role, which would help, but he would still be competing with three other receiving threats with Brissett as the top quarterback option.
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The roof: 7/10
Risk: 7/10
Terry McLaurin, Emperors (54)
Everything seems to be changing for the better for McLaurin this offseason. After a throwaway season full of injuries to himself and his quarterback, Washington is making the most troubling changes in coaching and offense philosophy from Kliff Kingsbury. McLaurin is moving from a static role as a “left” WR to a more mobile movement around the formation. The addition of Stefon Diggs limits his potential WR1 volume, but it’s not a total fantasy killer for him. If the Chiefs end up playing more under center and do as they say they want to do, the Chiefs WR1 could be set for a career year.
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The roof: 7/10
Risk: 5/10
Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers (42)
McMillan had flaws in his rookie season, but that didn’t stop him from being a top-20 fantasy WR right away. The 2025 eighth overall pick in the NFL Draft could break out in an even bigger way in Year 2. His surprisingly accurate connection downfield with QB Bryce Young could lead to some big weeks, especially since Carolina only throws in the red zone. Drops and catches should rebound closer to his college numbers, giving him plenty of room to grow on top of an already good rookie.
The roof: 9/10
Risk: 5/10
Analysis from the best in the business
The Playbook is powered by some of fantasy football’s most trusted analysts: Justin Boone (the top-ranked quarterback of 2025), Matt Harmon, Josh Norris, Joel Smyth, Scott Pianowski and Hayden Winks. This is not one analyst’s opinion. It’s a consensus of the sharpest minds in fantasy football, a project you can trust in featuring.
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For a preview of what Ultra subscribers have in store with The Playbook, including a snapshot of our sleepers, breakouts, strategy tips, player profiles and more, it’s here.
The Ultra Fantasy Playbook is loaded with everything you need to dominate your draft.
What does the Playbook include?
Setting targets and faces: Each analyst reveals his traits and players to avoid at QB, RB, WR and TE.
A sleeper and breakout candidate from all 32 teams; Every roster has one. We find them before your feds do.
deep sleepers: For the captains, who want a wide mouth in the draft, where the balls are quietly won.
Positional strategies: Rich deep builds in which to navigate for Late-Round QB, Zero RB and other popular strategies.
Each game plan for each draft pick range: Whether you are the first or the second, we tell you how the table should be formed in each round of planning.
Almost 150 player profiles: An exploration of the relationships about the names that will determine your season, including projections as well as ceilings and risk meters.
Mid-PPR and full PPR rankings: Consensus prospecting built specifically for those scoring formats.
Half-PPR and full-PPR position versus each other analyst: See the value of the rocks at a glance and know exactly when the position is worth running to pursue.
Unique shape design: playing in Superflex or TE Premium league? We have the top 50 tables to guide you through the key first round.
More analysis: targets on each team, 2026’s top-10 rookies, return candidates, kicking and D/ST insights are all part of the Playbook.
Cheat sheet form: Today’s capture is ready, so you can click on the headings in the table, and not toggling between 10 tabs.
The Yahoo Fantasy Ultra Playbook is designed for fantasy managers who want to get smarter, not just play the game.
Beyond the subscription, you’ll also unlock top-notch tools like Yahoo’s Draft Strategy Lab, so you can take your draft game to the next level. Filter by rank of each analyst or by draft strategy, such as Robust RB.
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