How Do the Bullpens Line up for World Series Game 4?

Through the draft, the Brewers have gone so quickly past the opposition that their bullpen management has felt underwhelmed. The Rays, meanwhile, stand to make their starting pitchers strong while retaining their freshest bullpen. Those two trends haven’t played much of a role in the World Series yet, nor could they; However, they suddenly draw, and yesterday 10-1 they joined their arms with fresh pressure on both sides. But with Game 4 tonight with Griffin Jax pitching against a yet-to-be-announced opener, relievers are on the square menu, so let’s review how each pen has fared in terms of rest and familiarity.

Brewers bullpen

The Brewers went to the same pattern twice to open the World Series: Abner Uribe at the top of the lineup, then Aaron Ashby later in the big game. I don’t know how much familiarity the reliever has had, but it sure isn’t any, and with a full bullpen game, the Brewers will have to think through their matchups carefully to minimize how many looks they give to the same guy they’re opposing.

They are fortunate enough to do so. Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan, both survivors, aren’t listed here because they didn’t appear in this series, but they’re also available, and I expect at least one to go today. You can imagine something like this as a dirty plan, with Dustin May taking the mound to open the game;

Quick Note: Ryan Vilade and Ben Williamson for the lefties press so regularly that the bottom line (and maybe we’ll see Aranda’s spot) is not fixed. Those guys will come at some point, which is part of why I like using Uribe against the bottom half of the lineup. It could be better than expected matchups if the Rays press in their first attack.

The idea here is to get all the best relievers in the game, avoiding all the matchups that have already been repeated and other fair play. It also provides a few useful places to throw the pitcher longer if he is rolling. Pat Murphy seems content to extend a bit of support if they tend to do well – an admirable skill, in my opinion – which adds flexibility. If JoJo Romero makes a short cut of his work, it can be safely extended across the bottom line. Ashby, of course, is always more of a threat on the pitch than in the innings. It wouldn’t be surprising if Dustin got to the line once he got off to a good start; if the trade is in the base, when the bottom part of the line goes down, although I expect it to enter to the left.

Another option would be to flip Trevor Megill and Ashby in the lineup. It feels like your destiny as the closer has two men in front, but there are no style points in the World Series, and Ashby moved to pitch as long as he could late in the game. They could also use DL Hall earlier and try him against the top of the lineup, although I prefer to keep him because of his light spots against lefties. But no matter how the elite relievers are lined up, the Brewers look good to present a ton of tough Rays matchups. Ashby hasn’t seen the top of the lineup much at all, so I like using him, and Uribe can attack the bottom of the lineup plenty.

Another benefit of this plan: It is very adaptable if things dictate a change. One way to get a bad bullpen game is to run out of the bullpen. If you use all your long relievers in the morning and then pitch a one-inning contest, the remaining 27 outings can be done. But because of the construction, the Brewers have more options to cover the outfield even if things don’t go to plan. Ashby made everything fall. Hall pitches multiple innings when needed, and is fresh. If the May Spectacular melts, the Brewers could arrange for Romero to get out of the inning and then ask Drohan to cover the few closers who return to the schedule; I started working out of the bullpen.

Is there another way of looking at it? The Brewers’ bullpen is really good, and that means there aren’t many bad ways to line up. I thought it would be more difficult to establish only good matchups while figuring out the entire pitching value of the game, but as it turns out, having a few elite multi-inning relievers and the confusion of the wealth of the overall makes things much easier. This might be a bullpen game, but the Brewers are well-equipped to look like an intricately designed prevention machine.

Rays Bullpen

The Rays haven’t used closer Bryan Baker yet this series, but the rest of the relievers have some mileage in them. That presents a tricky problem, because they don’t have as many flexible options as Milwaukee to take away from pressure. They don’t like Cam Booser’s matchup against righties, especially righties, and he’s already faced William Contreras once to boot. He more or less confines him to the bottom of the order, but he has already been faced twice, and yesterday in the teeth of a kick, he slipped as far as four.

To me, that suggests that the piggyback plan is the best option. Jax went four innings in his last start, and I’d like to give him a similar workload today. More specifically, they beat the first 13, twice and three times against four totals, ending with Contreras. After that, my goal would be to give Ian Seymour, his second first job out of the bullpen, the next 14 batters – the bottom five guys in the lineup twice, about one way through the top of the order. 27 that to me; Kevin Kelly and Baker could either try to slam the door on themselves from there if things go efficiently, or the Rays could use those two with Tyler Wells and Booser if the Brewers put a lot of baserunners on board.

This plan is far more speculative than the one Brasatores put forward, though. First, he relies on two different piggybacks through Milwaukee’s tough lineup, each struggling more than once, without getting into a jam that leads to Kevin Cash pulling for him. The Inevitable Reliever Blowup Theory might be wrong, but the Brewers’ Inevitable Offensive Blowup Theory looked pretty solid this October. No one in contact with Brewer survived the crime; no wonder if they remained torn by the opposites tonight.

To this end, there are a few places that I have to hunt down and try to go deeper into the game with the weapons that I have already mentioned. Obviously, I would like to have Jax pitch twice in order if he makes it through his schedule; I don’t mind his comp against the bottom half of Milwaukee, especially if he can give up a hit without a run. That would be a catch in Wells because of the short stick versus the tip, I think that Seymour will go long and double him on the Brice Turang-Garrett Mitchell side of the Brewer’s double.

I think the Rays should also consider using Baker first because Jackson Chourio bats with a runner on base. So it is closer. The Rays will also play again tomorrow if they win today. But he’s fresh, and obviously he’s shooting for how the game is going today. If they go ahead, it is closer. If you are behind, there is no tomorrow. Would it be so crazy to see him close out an inning in the top of the fourth inning for Milwaukee before giving up Seymour? Not to me, no.

One last point on the Rays bullpen: Southpaw Garrett Cleavinger missed the season with an injury and wasn’t a lock to even appear in the World Series, but he looked perfectly healthy yesterday, and he’s better against righties than he is against lefties, which gives the Rays extra flexibility if they think they’re %s. I’d rather keep him on reserve than he should fail in any part of my plan – because against the Brewers, everyone’s plans have failed.

It’s strange to come to the conclusion that Milwaukee’s plan today tends to be more flexible than Tampa Bay’s. The Brewers are almost certainly going to use more pitchers, and the top guys have put in more work than their counterparts thanks to winning all three games. But the Rays bullpen is too laborious, and they don’t have the flexible options that the Brewers can mix and match freely. Their lefty’s high-leverage guy, Booser, shouldn’t be making righties and he’s already getting crushed by lefties. A man of both rights, Kelly relies on lefties and rarely lasts more than an inning. Baker’s a one-inning guy. The Rays can’t think of extra length from the back of the bullpen, and they also have to consider matchups when they develop it. That puts the Brewers in a bind they simply won’t face. It won’t be the factor that determines the World Series, but it’s another area where the Brewers can make the most of a small part in team construction.