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If baseball is an imitation sport, everyone in the game this winter will be working on copying what the 2026 Brewers did en route to a championship. That will probably lead to some misconceptions — no, they weren’t necessarily winning with small ball or elite-level contact — but it’s hard to ignore the fact that both Milwaukee and AL champion Tampa Bay over the course of the season have built young, fast lineups that can play strong defense.
So we’re down to the Pacific Northwest, where the 76-86 Mariners were not only the most disappointing team in the sport, but also ranked dead last in two important stats that directly measure speed and defense.
A different metric, Defensive Runs Saved, thinks it’s “fairly worse” than “literally worst,” but it’s still not good, and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto didn’t mince words when talking about his team’s needs in recent GM Meetings.
“The biggest thing for us right now is improving our defense,” Dipoto said. “Our defense last year was just wild.”
“It becomes very difficult for a good lineup to stay good,” he added, “and when you’re losing every night, it makes it really difficult to win games.”
Wild. Disbursement of money in the evening. These are difficult expressions to misinterpret, aren’t they?
This is also important. Break down the 30 teams into top and bottom defensively, according to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value data. 10 of 15 from the first half, or two-thirds, have made the playoffs, including all four ALCS/NLCS teams and, of course, the World Series participants. In the bottom half, just two, or 13% — and Houston, at 81-81, didn’t even post a winning record while doing it.
As Toronto and St. Louis proved, having an elite defense doesn’t guarantee you a playoff spot, though in Toronto, a lot of it was just about their otherworldly catchers; the non-catching portion of their defense was complete. But it’s different on the other side, where a terrible defense comes pretty close to guaranteeing you won’t do in — or, at the very least, a symptom of other, larger, team-wide flaws.
None of this is, of course, the only reason 2026 Sailors fell apart. They’ve outscored only two other teams — there’s Toronto, again — and certainly speed and defensive issues won’t explain why Cal Raleigh’s disastrous pursuit of an incredible 2025 or Julio Rodriguez’s career-worst hitting season. But that’s a place to start, and Dipoto made that abundantly clear as part of his comments at the GM Meetings.
“We think the lowest-hanging fruit is finding players who can bolster our defense, whether it’s in everyday or role-type situations,” Dipoto said.
OK, then. Let’s see what we can do to help.
To some extent, part of that problem may be resolved, as many of the team’s weakside defensemen are not expected to return in 2027.
Arozarena is a free agent and will be one of the most sought-after bats this winter despite a weak glove. Crawford, who was fired last season after playing more games there than any Mariner in team history, has already been told he will be moving on.
Raley missed most of the second half with a left elbow injury that required surgery, and while he remains with the team as an arbitration-eligible player, it’s unclear how much of a role is in store for him in 2027. Meanwhile, Garver retired last month, while Brock Rodden (-5) is likely ticketed in the Minor Leagues and as a 4th baseman as well.
We’ll leave second baseman Cole Young aside for the moment, because when he won the Gold Glove, there was a huge metric disagreement on the field — Statcast thought he was below average, Baseball Prospectus had him slightly above average, and DRS considered him elite — but that doesn’t matter now because he’s clearly moving on next season.
That’s a lot of negative field value already out of the gate. Good start.
It really comes down to these two questions.
1) Can the returning Mariners outfielders improve?
While all the attention has been focused on his offensive woes, less attention has been paid to the fact that his once-perfect defense has also slipped.
That’s almost entirely due to a frame that dropped from +7 runs in 2025 to -4 in 2026, and while we can’t say for sure if it’s due to an oblique injury he’s trying to play through and/or a left (seizure) shoulder that required postseason surgery, it would at least make sense. Given how fantastic he’s been over the previous four seasons, rated as a top-five defender, it’s not a stretch to think he can at least improve, if not overpower.
Speaking of mysterious descents! Why did three-time All-Star Rodriguez sink to just average at 25? But also what caused his defensive ability to change from “great” to “not so great”?
Going from the 93rd to the 85th percentile in sprint speed is hard enough to keep you from playing center field. It’s also about the rebounds, as his ability to make previously good jumps turned slightly below average in 2026, falling a full two feet from his 2023 peak.
But it’s also about one-off weird games many times over. For example:
There’s no telling why all of this happened or if it will ever get better. Perhaps it was due to a team-wide breakdown that hurt the batting; perhaps the most costly concussion of July; perhaps an overhauled coaching staff will have a positive impact; or maybe baseball is just a fickle beast. Regardless, those mistakes happened and negated Rodriguez’s usually reliable defensive value.
We’d also add shortstop Colt Emerson here, though it’s unclear how much guaranteed time he’ll get next year. Despite signing a record deal right after Opening Day, his first season didn’t go well on both sides of the ball with a 66 OPS+ and -3 Fielding Run Value, before missing the final six weeks with left wrist surgery that would keep him from swinging for most of the winter.
But you probably don’t expect it that returning veterans are much different than Josh Naylor, Dominic Canzone or Brendan Donovan. While rookie Lazaro Montes has a strong arm if he earns a spot, there’s little in the scouting reports that suggests he brings elite defensive value. The same can be said for defensive end Michael Arroyo, who is limited once he recovers from elbow surgery. If internal improvement is to be found, this pair should be superstars.
2) Is there anyone on the market who can juice the defense quickly?
Looking at the 2027 Mariners roster, the starters are likely left at first, second and center, plus third or Donovan. This means that a cornerback (or two) and left-back are the most obvious places for an outside addition.
“Generally, our preference would be to keep all your pitchers. You need them,” he said last week. “But if they can get us going or give us access to a hitter that we otherwise wouldn’t be able to get through prospect packages, position players or free agency, then we should be open.”
That might be for the best, as a quick look at the Statcast Hot Sove leaderboard suggests that the best defenders probably don’t belong on this particular club. Second basemen Brandon Lowe, Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm Jr. all come with some questions about the up-and-down nature of their pitching and will have to dislodge Young anyway. Former Mariner Ty France will seek the second consecutive multi-year deal given to the first baseman, after Naylor received five years after last season.
It’s more complicated on the left side of the field. Even powerful free agent bat Teruaki Sato, nominally a third baseman, is more likely to play first or the outfield, meaning the well-traveled Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Mauricio Dubon will also play everywhere as bench options.
Otherwise, you’ll have to rely on Seiya Suzuki’s unexpected defensive improvement by age 30, or former Cubs teammate Ian Happ’s reputation for inconsistent defensive numbers (four Gold Gloves), or bet on the once-elite Daulton Varshon’s rebound after a series of injuries.
If you really want to emulate the Brewers and/or Rays, getting some of them, like Milwaukee’s light-hitting but defensively elite outfielder Joey Ortiz (+13 FRV) or Tampa Bay’s standout hitter Johnny DeLuca (+10), is available as Victor Mesa can be acquired. Miami’s Otto Lopez (+12) is certainly available for a high price, or perhaps the Phillies, looking to shake things up, make Bryson Stott (+6) available.
If they just want an elite outfielder without enough hitting expectations in the starting lineup, then Angels outfielder Bryce Teodosio (+13 over the last two years) is the best outfielder nobody knows enough about, though it’s hard to know how the Angels will fare or function during a management transition.
It won’t be easy, but then again, it didn’t have to be. It’s impossible to go from worst to first in defense in one winter. But Seattle doesn’t need to. They just need to mount a competent, good enough defense that won’t keep them out of the playoffs by itself. To some extent, this is already happening with departures, but it will also require improvement from within. It will take an extra from the outside. You need the ball, not the grass, to find the glove.