The Nittany Lions visit the Big House as they try to win their first Big Ten game of the season.
Penn State (3-3, 0-3) vs.
Kickoff: 3:30 pm, Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Bet Line: Penn State +6.5 (Fanduel)
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TV: CBS, 3:30 pm, Brad Nessler (play-by-play), Charles Davis (analyst), Jenny Dell (sideline)
Weather: Sunny and dry, but a chilly day with a high of 52 and temps in the 30s in the evening.
Matt Campbell:
PANN STATE RECORD: 3-3, 1st Year
OVERALL RECORD: 110-73, 15th Year
vs. MICHIGAN: 0-0
Kyle Whittingham:
MICHIGAN RECORD: 3-2, 1st Year
OVERALL RECORD: 180-90, 22nd Year
vs. PENN STATE: 0-1
FUN TRUTH
Penn State set the all-time Beaver Stadium whiteout against USC, with 114,419 in the county…Audavion Collins is second in the nation in passing yards with eight…Michigan leads the all-time series 17-10 over Penn State…Nittany ranks second in Big Ten passing defense and third in turnover margin.
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MICHIGAN CRIME VS. PENN STATE DEFENSE
Penn State’s offense was bad. Michigan was horrible. The Wolverines are ranked last or second last in the Big Ten in offense, top offense, passing offense, and explosive playmaking. 13 are rushing into the block.
The biggest reason for Michigan’s offensive woes is the lack of development at quarterback Bryce Underwood, the top prospect of the 2025 recruiting class. Bieber is in his second year to start, but he hardly looks. He misses open receivers and when he does make the spot, he has had accuracy issues. He just didn’t look like a Big Ten quarterback with a clear position to succeed. Bieber is completing just 59 percent of his passes with five touchdowns to four interceptions. While he was able to find a rhythm against Iowa, he followed up his worst game of the season against Minnesota, going 10-21 without a touchdown while picking off two passes.
For what Bieber lacks as a passer, he is a dangerous threat as a runner. The Wolverines rely heavily on their quarterback to get something out of the offense, and Saturday will be no exception. Opposing offenses have figured out how to get the Nittany Lion defense out of position for big gains on the ground. Michigan will certainly have a heavy focus throughout the afternoon.
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Michigan’s offensive line is nowhere near the standard unit that defenses wanted to field in the late Harbaugh era. They are a middle line that couldn’t open up holes for easy gains and allowed eight sacks on the season.
Running backs Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter were the backbone of the offense. Marshall is a physical runner who doesn’t shy away from contact. The freshman hitter is still getting his feet wet, and averaged 0.8 yards rushing in Oklahoma and 1.1 yards in a loss to Minnesota.
JJ Buchanan and Andrew Marsh are the two leading receivers, and are the only players on the team with more than five catches this season. Buchanan is used to stretch the field as an explosive play threat, while Marsh is often looked to to move the chains.
This match-up will tell us a lot about Penn State’s defense. Michigan’s offense had the ball moving, while Penn State’s defense was a consistent standout in Big Ten play. The defensive line is especially bad, generating no pass rush while running through lanes with ease. He’s been a poor linebacker outside of Tony Rojas, and a big reason why teams have been running so freely in recent weeks.
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CRIME PENN STATE VS. MICHIGAN DISTRICT
Rocco Becht has his best game in conference play against USC. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to put him on the offensive with Jordan Maiva and the Trojans. This trend will need to continue after poor performances against Wisconsin and Northwestern. Unfortunately, the Nittany Lions don’t have a solid running game regardless of who’s in the backfield, so Becht will need to make plays like the nation’s most skilled quarterbacks if the season is going to be salvaged.
Obviously, Becht missed Koby Howard, who was by far the most explosive option on offense. Chase Sowell looked good given the opportunity, but was ruled out in the middle when he came up short with an injury. Zay Robinson has proven that he has the ability to play as a return man and get more involved in the offense with eight yards for 122 yards and a score in six games.
Michigan’s defense will clearly be the best unit on the field on Saturday. They lead the Big Ten in total defense and passing defense, with the fourth-best run defense giving up just 94 yards per game on the ground. The Nittany Lions will have their hands full moving the ball against this defense.
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Troy Bowles, a former Georgia Bulldog, is on track to be an All-Big Ten linebacker. He has excellent speed and instincts that make him a great sideline-to-sideline player while also playing in the midfield. John Henry Daley and Nichols are a dynamic duo at defensive end, and will be a tough spot for an offensive line that has struggled at tackle (and center and guard for that matter…). Cornerback Jyaire Hill is another standout who excels in coverage but also has the physicality to be a bigger run supporter and has been used in unexpected packages.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Michigan kicker Trey Butkowski has only four field goal attempts, but he made all of them for a long run of 49 yards. Punter Cam Brown is as steady as they come, averaging 43.3 yards per punt while putting nearly half of his attempts inside the 20.
ANNOUNCEMENT
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Michigan-16, Penn State-13
Both teams have offenses that make fans want to pull their hair out. I don’t have confidence that either side can move the ball regularly, hope it’s that light. The difference here is Michigan’s defense. The best units will have a fairly wide margin. They are much more reliable than Penn State’s defense, which has only seemed to get worse week by week.
Subwood makes some plays on the ground that lead to a touchdown and puts the Wolverines in scoring position enough to pull off the victory, and their fourth consecutive loss to Penn State.