Predictions, Odds, Analysis! UFC Vegas 122, X-Factor

This weekend (Sat., Oct. 10, 2026), The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return home to the Apex Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 122. I don’t care how many punches there are in UFC 332 (record setting!), we’re in the middle of a UFC loss. The battle has not been particularly significant in the last two weeks, and that will not change on Saturday! On the bright side, I’m hoping the recent matchmaking trend towards squash matches makes some exciting highlights… and maybe bumps my strength percentage by a point or two?

We ask for a peak, and let everyone know what it brings now. Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the five main card fights leading up to the main event;

Light: Jai Herbert (+148) Matthew Camilo vs (-192)
Best Win for Herbert? Kyle Nelson For Camilo? Nadim Sadykhov
Current Series: Herbert won the last battle, while Camilo won two in a row
The X-Factor: Camilo is 13 years younger
As these two are equal: This should be pretty fun, however long it lasts.

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I have a soft spot for fighters like Herbert, gritty and technical veterans who don’t have enough to slow down top athletic competitors. The rangy “Black Country Banger” can always be counted on to get behind her, wearing a piece of rope as she tries to get up and coming – a necessary force in the UFC machine. Camilo, 25. The wait is here. The Brazilian “Jaguar” is struggling in his first three UFC fights, producing one round loss, a shocking lay-and-bone victory, and an unfortunate knockout win (live here). It shows flashes of great learning and excellent timing, but it can also be very low-volume.

It is difficult to predict this fight. Herbert is something of a glass cannon, and Camilo certainly has the power to break him. You generally want to go with fighters who are 13 years younger than you are against. On the other hand, Herbert has more experience, and you don’t want to do that even against opponents who have an eight-inch advantage.

Herbert could see the smoke early through the iron of the coal. I could also see him poking fun at Camilo with points and kicks, and increasing his useful numbers as the rounds wore on. Either way the fight could be explained is entirely reasonable.

Prediction: Herbert by decision

Strawweight: Loopy Godinez (-245) vs. Ketlen Souza (+186)
Best Win for Godinez? Jessica Andrade For Souza? Who doesn’t follow Yazmin Jauregui? Autodesk_new
Current Series: Godinez lost his last fight, when Souza won two straight
The X-Factor: Souza can rebound
As these two are equal: I have to admit that I find Godinez to be quite the watcher.

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Don’t get me wrong, that Strawweight is damn good. Godinez has solid kickboxing skills, above average wrestling, and pushes cardio to 15 minutes hard. Unless he chooses his opponents at all, however, the chance of scoring is small, while the chance of a competitive decision is high (predator intent!). Souza, on the other hand, is less technical and more fun to watch. She follows suit Jessica Andradeand leaning heavily on his step and throwing heavy weights on his body and chin.

Can Souza force Godinez to fight? Perhaps! On foot, he can match volume and overcome with sheer power, even if his fist isn’t sharp enough. The biggest question is whether Souza can withstand Godinez’s takeovers, and that’s where I have much less confidence. Not all of the former Souza lost consecutive fights mostly due to submissions, and those defeats came against lesser fighters than Godinez.

Godinez mixes his kicking into his wrestling well. He could have survived a couple of hard shots or a late attack from the Brazilian, but spending a lot of that fight in the top position, his opponent was exhausted.

Prediction: Godinez by decision

Featherweight: Andre Fili (-150) Kai Kamaka III vs (+118)
Best Win for Son? Cub Swanson For Kamaka? Bubba Jenkins
Current Series: Fili lost the last two, while Kamaka lost the last bout
The X-Factor: Both strikes have been shut down in the summer
As these two are equal: This clash of featherweight veterans should be a lot of fun.

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Fili has been in the UFC for 13 years and is starting to climb the longest Featherweight records. A slick ranged striker, Fili blasts opponents with powerful kicks from both cases, then lands similar strikes and takedowns when trying to bring them down. Kamaka, meanwhile, is in his second UFC stint after a career hiatus in the PFL. He is a high-rolling combination puncher who makes a heavy move, and is a capable wrestler.

Both these old women are inexcusable, who seldom escape a little. I feel, however, that most of the benefits come from the side of “Touchy.” This player is a more powerful hitter, a better kicker, holds a five-inch advantage, and generally competes at a higher level during his career. Kamaka’s edge is great raw output here, but one thing to note is that Fili’s punches and body kicks will slow him down.

Filia is likely to have a ranged fighting style here, and her ranged weapons can moderate the “Hawaiian Battle” boxing.

Prediction: Son by decision

Light Heavy: Julius Walker (-295) Gerald Meerschaert vs (+220)
Best Walker for the win? Rafael Cerqueira For Meerschaert? Edmen Shahbazyan
Current Series: Walker has lost two in a row, while “GM3” is “O” for the last 5
The X-Factor: Meerschaert is asking for 250 pounds
As these two are equal: This… is not great.

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Walker ufc quickly made it. That’s fine. He has the athleticism and size to be a success at UFC Light Heavyweight, but his game is not developed, and he needs to learn in a division where everyone is really tough. He has some grappling and offensive skills, but he’s a terrible shot on the feet, which remains a major liability.

“GM3” has almost the opposite problem: it’s old. Considering all the 38-year-olds reading this column, I’m more referring to Meerschaert’s overall career. This is his 60th professional fight, and his historically iron chin has definitely declined with general athleticism.

There is, of course, a chance that Meerschaert’s weight class shift will inject some life into the race. Maybe he was cut, he was doing his murder. On paper, there’s no reason why Meerschaert can’t simply land a left kick to Walker’s liver and then grab a guillotine when his opponent tries to wrestle him crazy. Five years ago, this style of banging would be a layup for veterans.

Today, I don’t believe so. Meerschaert is too fragile now. At 27 years old, Walker needs to be bigger, stronger, and full of dirt and vinegar to have a place on the roster. If he attacked the slope with knees and elbows, I do not know whether Meerschaert would respond.

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Prediction: Walker by knockout

Bantamweight: Malcolm Wellmaker (-235) Otari Tanzilov vs (+180)
Best Win for Wellmaker? Cameron Saima For Tanzilov? William Towers
Current Series: Wellmaker has lost two in a row, while Tanzilov recently lost in his UFC debut
The X-Factor: Wellmaker recently began training at American Top Team (ATT)
As these two are equal: We have a classic striker wrestler matchup between Bantamweight prospects.

Wellmaker started his UFC run on fire with a pair of knockout wins, immediately gaining some momentum. Alas, consecutive losses to Ethyn Ewing and John Diaz still more had to be demonstrated as an athletic artist to learn from the knock. Tanzilov, meanwhile, is still looking for his first UFC win. The Pontic wrestler can be aggressive with his offense, but he’s relied on enough significant offense to sway the judges to his corner in his last two losses. Contender Series and in the proper Octagon.

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To his credit, Tanzilov has seven knockout wins on his record against lower level competition.

Tanzilov’s challenge is quite straightforward, he is a strong wrestler and a good athlete. If Wellmaker — with his size, size and power punches — can’t handle this matchup, that’s well and truly. Fortunately, ATT is one of the best gyms in the country dedicated to learning. But getting up after being laid down is a specialty of the gym, and they’ll also help Wellmaker fill in the gaps in his standup, like scoring points while looking for that little hook check.

Basically, I still have faith that Wellmaker can find success in the UFC, and that’s why I think he’ll find it here.

Prediction: Wellmaker by choice

‘X-Factor’ reads for 2026: 59-32 (1)

To checkout the full UFC Vegas 122 fight card and line, press ” here”.