Following up on last week’s “Sportsbook Whispers,” the best betting story in college football got even better last Saturday afternoon.
UCLA covered again.
Make that 7-0 straight up and against the spread, and all the Bruins regular-season win totals are “Over.” Whether you bet 5.5, 6 or 6.5, you’re a winner thanks to a sensational first year from head coach Bob Chesney.
UCLA (7-0 ATS) and Kentucky (7-1 ATS) are the best cover teams in the country. BYU, Georgia Southern, Louisiana Tech, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Oregon State and Utah are all 6-1 ATS.
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Speaking of BYU, let’s pour one out for all the Cougar fans who thought Las Vegas perceived them as a top-10 team. I read over 500 social media comments — lots of them insanely disrespectful — all because I said BYU wasn’t a top-10 team and that UCF plus the points was the play.
“I don’t make numbers with my feelings,” Vegas oddsmaker Motoi Pearson cracked. “I had Cougs 19th before the UCF game and now they’re 21st. They’re still a really good team that can crash the College Football Playoff.”
The biggest question mark for me heading into the weekend is how Ohio State’s offense will look without starting quarterback Julian Sayin.
A Heisman finalist last year, Sayin is out indefinitely with an arm injury, and it sounds like freshman Luke Fahey will start under center at USC.
One projected look-ahead line last week was Ohio State -3.
Circa Sports in Vegas opened Ohio State -7 on Sunday.
“Lookaheads are lookaheads for a reason,” former Las Vegas bookmaker Ed Salmons told me. “USC scored seven points last weekend. They were awful. [Jayden] Maiava reads two. So you will have to skip the number.
“I’ve done a lot of homework in Ohio State. Fahey might start as a kid, but I wouldn’t be surprised if [Tavien] Saint Clair ends. The perspective is better and much bigger. They will make a pass if Fahey doesn’t play well.
“And Ohio State is a lot tougher than USC.”
That doesn’t mean bettors won’t pounce on a good number.
“Oh, I took some- [+7] with the dog, “Profession is better than sweeping,” he said. “I’ll take my chances against a young QB putting a touchdown on the road. It’s a solid place for USC to spend it. If they’re any good, they’ll rebound.”
This column the victor gave to Salmon in six or seven weeks. It’s surprising that it hasn’t gone full circle with the 900 number at this point.
“I bet UConn +3,” he said. “I think they’re going to win. Air Force is going to be QB3 and this UConn team is a lot better than people think.”
In the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings are the last undefeated team after dealing early losses to Kansas City and San Francisco. As we all discussed in September.
One American sportsbook is losing the Vikings at 40/1 to make the final play. I can’t imagine there was much guilt there.
It is a liability, though, that the Caesars are on the Las Vegas Raiders winning the Super Bowl. No bueno house if that happened.
“It’s our biggest liability by far,” Caesars head football coach Joey Feazel told me. “And there’s no reason to think it won’t stay that way moving forward. We’re also serious enough about Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow to win the NFL MVP.”
As is likely, the Raiders’ Super Bowl win would be a bad book (Getty Images).
Finally, last Thursday morning I shared a comment about Ben Johnson as a play caller in key sports. Dating back to his days as the offensive coordinator in Detroit, Johnson called games for the first time in 23 games.
The Bears and Lions are a combined 18-4-1 ATS.
I know it’s not the biggest sample size in the world and there’s always going to be a group of people who say “Brains don’t pay rent”.
I generally agree, but Bill Belichick against rookie quarterbacks, and Patrick Mahomes was incredible for the dog. Ben Johnson’s cub is in Seattle on Monday night and I’ll be back at the well.
Here he hopes to be 19-4-1.