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In 2016, Bill James’s “World Series Prediction System”, which James developed in 1972, was introduced to a wider audience. Enter Sports in 1982 and 1984 Bill James Baseball Abstract. System since 1984 Abstract was;
- Give the team with the better record one point for each half-game difference in win-loss percentage.
- The team scored the most runs scored by the team.
- Give 14 points to the team that hit fewer double
- Give 12 points to the team that hits more triples.
- Give 10 points to the team that hits more home runs.
- Give 8 points to the team lower For example, the average
- Give the team 8 points with the fewest mistakes.
- Give 7 points to the team that had the most double plays.
- Give 7 points to the team that is allowed more he walks
- Give 19 points to the team that boasted the most shutouts.
- Give the team whose ERA was more than 15 points below the league average.
- 12 points give the team the most recent experience of the season. (In case of a tie, give points to the team that had greater success).
- For intraleague series, award 12 points to the team with the better head record.
He calculated the weights by considering the entire time series and checking how often the winning team exhibited certain characteristics. Shutouts got a weight of 19 because, considering the streak, the team won more shutouts than lost 19. The team with the double-doubles won more than twenty times, the team with the relatively lower ERA won more than 15 times, etc. And there is an element of intuitive sense; high average errors can depend on scams and duplicate connections at the same time, while transmission scores are often long-dependent.
I updated the system in 2016. James did not have the data from the 31 World Series and the 62 Series Championship that I had that year. And the Division Series wasn’t until 1995. I found two significant changes by compiling the data since 1984 Abstract. First, inconveniently, the weights changed. Second, I found the weight in the series according to the category (Division vs. Championship vs. World). So I developed different formulas for each type of series. I renewed it annually. For the World Series, I only thought of playing since 1969, I skipped the years 1981, 1994, and 2020.
And now, with one more World Series, two Championship Series, and four Division Series under our belts, I was able to renew the weights even further. (Note that somewhere along the line, someone suggested that I change the variables to more recent ones. I didn’t forget this. Or I didn’t.
Here are the formulas for the 2026 season, using James’ original framework.