Fantasy football analyst Matt Harmon points out that the most dense passing games in the game – these are the teams that are forced to commit to only two players at most.
Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a 35.1% target share in the Seahawks offense and a 49.2% ground share, both leading the NFL. It’s wild that every life form in the Solar System knows where the ball is going when Seattle drops a pass, and no one can stop the guy. That’s even with the account team outside the defense paying attention to the JSN – any fateful narratives to the contrary should be ignored.
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Seattle looks to have a ton of clouds and two deep coverage corners with cornerback pressure on the receiver at the line. Nor does it matter; Smith-Njigba is the best running back in the NFL right now and always finds gaps and gets separation.
All this as Seahawks quarterback, Sam Darnold, ranks 26th in net yards per attempt. The beginning of the season is planned. You can make a credible argument that the lack of another pitch emerging in the passing game is part of why they struggled to move the ball through the air with any degree of consistency. Obviously, fantasy actors don’t care.
I don’t see this changing for Seattle. Smith-Njigba has every part of his volume and for the most part, we know who these versions of Cooper Kupp (13% goal share), Rashid Shaheed (14%) and AJ Barner (12.8%) are. The only guy who could make this effort is 2nd year wideout Tory Horton, but he is working to stay healthy and gather momentum.
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Atlanta Falcons
Drake London leads the team with a 29% target, and Bijan Robinson comes in second at 16.7%. The team’s concentration really shows in the aerials, as the first two players account for a whopping 76.9%, the highest combined figure for the two in the NFL. London leads at 43.7%, but it’s obviously not Robinson in second, and neither is Kyle Pitts Sr. (13.2%); The wide appeal of Jahan Dotson leaves London receiver with a 33.2% share.
With Michael Penix Jr in the lineup in Week 3, London is the WR7 in fantasy football. Dotson is the most respectable WR31 with 206 catches and a pair of touchdowns on eight receptions.
I love this. Dotson was a top prospect coming into the league, who showed flashes but fell out of favor in Washington and was buried behind a wide-open star in Philadelphia. I kept the candle burning for him to finally turn it into a good rotary receiver and it looks like we’re getting there at least.
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For Dotson, it turns out very differently than I thought. Here is the team’s primary vertical X receiver with 17.6 yards of air on the sign with Penix under center. With this role, both Robinson and Pitts working underneath, London should maintain a dominant goal in midfield.
Dallas Cowboys
No one is shocked that the two Cowboys find themselves this deep. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens account for 50.4% and 71.5% of their targets in the air, both second-most among NFL teams.
Lamb is having an elite season as the WR3 overall, but this reminder has not completely disappeared on Pickens (WR25). He averages a respectable 71 yards per game but has only scored once. Pickens is a volatile player in a hyper-volatile role; Nothing about the rocky ride was too scary.
The Cowboys’ impotence on offense in the last two games and some of their problems against heavy losses has been somewhat more troubling and unexpected. I tend to think that he wants that too, as Dak Prescott has historically excelled against Blitt.
From Weeks 8 to 11, the Cowboys face the Cardinals, Colts, 49ers and Titans. I’d be surprised if that pocket of the season didn’t contain several big games for Pickens. He may come down as a small loss from his round 2 fantasy ADP, but he is still the WR2 in the lineups every week.
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For dynasty sickos and waiver-wire grinders, I really like Ryan Flournoy’s game. He is third in the team’s shield and reduces the aerial graveyard with real man-coverage routes. If Pickens were to move in free agency, Flournoy could be this team’s WR2 and possess a ton of volume if Lamb misses time in a Pickens-less scenario.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are the 31st-best unit in the NFL in the offensive efficiency metric. So, we can’t expect consistent production unless Cam Ward takes a huge step forward. The good news is that rookie Carnell Tate is getting an alpha-level roll.
Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson combine for 49% of field goals, the sixth-highest mark for the duo. Tate leads with 26.7% but has a lead in the air. His 47.7% share of team targets is second only to Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
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My eye test, Tate looked the lonely part. He made a few rookie mistakes but he separates every step and wins against man coverage. His ball-tracking and nervousness are getting better in the draft. All rookie wideouts run with 1.95 yards across the road. If it ever achieves an ecosystem, Tate is going to be very rich. For now, I’m just looking forward to successful matchups for the next few weeks.
Detroit Lions
Our Lions are the first team in white where the rift is starting to widen. The top three guys on the team combined for 68.1% of the team’s field goals, which is the second most in the league.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (30.3%) leads the way, with Sam Laporta (19.7%) and Jahmyr Gibbs (18.1%) close behind. But while those guys are short on field goals, Jameson Williams actually leads the team with a 31.1% share of the team’s yardage. It just doesn’t look like a consistent enough layup. St. Brown is second with 30.1%, but Isaac TeSlaa comes in third with 17%, ahead of the tight end and running back.
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As amazing as the splits look from downfield, the Lions almost never throw the ball to anyone other than these five guys. And TeSlaa only has a 10% target share. Mathesis ends up working in the top four, and predicts big games live on a weekly basis, with Williams being the nest.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are one of eight teams with three or fewer players making up more than 10% of the team’s targets. We will discuss the Titans and the next two teams on the list.
For Green Bay, it’s Matthew Aureus (25.8%), Christian Watson (21.7%) and Tucker Kraft (16.7%) in the passing game — and that’s it. This contract probably wouldn’t have happened if Jayden Reed wasn’t there for the season but the football leagues were still focused on cutting wide receivers for the rotation. They followed.
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In the air area, Golden and Watson have a mass share of 74.5%. That only trails Atlanta as two 41% gold and is still the eighth most league-wide. It was one of the biggest eruptions of the 2026 season. His tape is not perfect but more than proof that this one “deserves”. I buy him to continue at this pace and you can argue that he has already emerged as this team’s best wide open.
New Aurelia Saints
The Saints lead the NFL in tackles per game and are third in tackles per game overall, while slotting in the average offense on offense. It’s quietly fake gold, especially in the passing game, which is heavily contested.
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The top three hitting Saints account for 85% of the total number of cubits, the third-highest in that category. Bryce Lance is the third player there and has 8.9% target share, as Juwan Johnson is a real complementary piece behind Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele.
Olavus gets elite-level volume, with 27.1% of targets and 43.4% of aerial passes. He was outstanding and ranked as a top-10 career NFL receiver. Vele has emerged as a solid big slot starter and a solid option.
It will be interesting to see how the distribution shakes out when rookie Jordyn Tyson gets into the mix. My guess is they will ease him in, when these nervous issues were of greater concern; Let the saints beware. Either way, when it is fully rolled, it spreads the work from the Vele tree. Olavus is too good to give anything up.
New York Giants
The Giants have a really fun duo working together in tight end Malik Nabers and tight end Isaiah. They combined to see a whopping 58.3% of targets, the highest rate among pass catchers.
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The floor distribution is a bit tighter – 54.8% is at the league average – because Nabers is getting a layup to increase his comfort while working from an injury. Meanwhile, guys like Malachi Fields and Darnell Mooney have seen the volume of real air graveyards that shoot plays, but not the whole target consistently. I like that Fields showed up as a complementary option, but I don’t think he’ll ever carve out a great target partner. Nabers and will probably be safe there.
But all of these guys have to experience a quarterback change.
JJ McCarthy got into the game and ripped off the hollow stands in a comeback fashion that at least came close to making the Saints sweat. He averaged 10 yards of air. Hopefully, he continues to play with that level of angst, as he has two credible assets in Nabers and not at all who do damage in the middle. Either way, Jameis Winston was a negative for the net offense, so it was time to look at someone else.