“It’s not going to happen that way. So, I just think you guys need to breathe and relax.” This is Denny Hamlin speaking after Kyle Larson’s maximum points the day after his Kansas win. Hamlin argued that Larson could not maintain a goal average of around 2.8. But six races into the Chase, as the JGR driver looks forced to eat his words, Jeff Gluck suggests Hamlin’s calculations were wrong. Now, we are chasing those astronomical averages.
“Here is the dose of the matter. I took the numbers. Historians are running that it is Kyle Larson, he finishes sixth today. So his average finish is 2.8, also an average of 53.7 points per race,” explained Jeff Gluck in the Mo Media clip shared in 10.
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This is the exact opposite of what Hamlin predicted, and even though Briscoe has consecutive Chase wins, he needs a miracle to get the No. 1 team. take 5 Gluck ran the numbers for the high-flying Toyota Prius driver, who lost his points to the Chase leader by 123 to 65 points.
“Briscoe would need 70 points in the middle of the race to catch Larson if Larson kept this. Now today he has a big day; he gets 68 points. He is going down to win in the last stage of Larson keeps this pace. Larson gets another 49 points and what was when he finished in sixth place, he had the second most points. So if he wants to do this, he doesn’t do it.”
Kyle Larson’s mathematical stranglehold on his championship drives his competitors into an impossible position. Subscribe to stay ahead of every update and playoff twist.
Ideally, Joe Gibbs Racing would have liked Christopher Bell or Hamlin to win those two consecutive races. Why? Because that was more pressing for Larson. What Briscoe did was cut short and with his teammate in the HMS driver’s studio. Despite a P6 finish at Charlotte, Larson gained ground. He now holds a 49-point advantage over Hamlin and a 51-point advantage over Bell, while Briscoe remains in the mix, 65 points behind.
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What’s for those chasing Larson is that he has his head in the game and won’t settle for a points lead.
“I don’t feel comfortable until it’s over. I mean obviously Briscoe is going to win and have a good day, he can take big chunks out of (the lead) if you win. So remember, we’re going to go to some tracks where other people are really good, we’re going up here, and like we had today like we had today when we weren’t fast, but we’re still going to get good points.”
Larson isn’t too worried about winning races at this point. A strong points haul with five top finishes still puts him ahead of his rivals. As Gluck stated, the needs of Hamlin and Bell wins with player points to overcome the deficit. Plus, even when Larson hits a hard break or a long pit stop, his team still manages to find a way in the race — something his direct rivals have struggled to do so far in the Chase.
“Larson fought, Bubba Wallace re-passed after nine laps, took the lead at the end of stage 1 to win stage 1. At the same time, Denny Hamlin was at the back of the field because of the exit on pit road and did not get points. That’s ten points there,” Jordan Bianchi added to Gluck’s analysis.
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But these calculations are trained by Gluck to the best guesses. In the surprises we’ve seen in the 2026 Chase, we can’t rule out more twists and turns during the final stretch.
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