Happiness Ratings/Weekly First Column Picks for UFC 333 is the final conclusion of the Contender Series. I’ll be watching again to preview some fighters early in the week as we prepare for UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi.
The ticket features a bantamweight film in the featherweight and men’s divisions to conclude the 14-bomb offering, with a special primetime fight at 10:00 AM ET on Paramount.
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One of the first “Aha!” The moments I had in gambling (in general, not just MMA) was starting to think about the reason why the forums are bad, maybe just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, the online betting market is where we can “buy” or “sell” things. These markets are generally efficient, with the “price” ultimately being the true odds of the outcome.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more asymmetric data than in larger markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still widely (and more) likely. Therefore, to beat the market for a long time, it is necessary to find out where you are going wrong.
That is the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look at the spots where the odds favor one fighter more than the other, making the line ineffective. The biggest entries will be split and/or controversial decisions, when short-notice fights, later fought fights, tooth injuries, and class fights are also considered extra weight.
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The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see scorecards or where one fighter gets the upper hand.
UFC 333 odds as of Monday and way DraftKings except where otherwise noted. UFC bet with us DraftKings code.
UFC 333 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Alexander Volkov (-120) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (+100)
If not for a split decision against Cyril Gane that almost certainly would have gone the other way, Alexander Volkov would have now fought for the heavyweight title. Which also likely means that Tom Aspinall won’t lose years from his career because of the now infamous Gane eye, completely changing the landscape of the heavyweight division. We don’t even have in mind the prospect of Josh Hokit running the title! Alas, it is not the world we live in.
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Instead, Volkov is 6-1 over the last seven and is fighting again in the ranks, as he takes on fellow Russian Rizvan Kuniev. Kuniev is 2-1 in the UFC with his only loss also being a somewhat controversial split decision, but it’s generally a weaker fight than Volkov’s championship level fighters are prepared for.
This line has already changed slightly to Volkov, and will likely continue to do so as predicted in Drago’s massive land Tapology. Let’s move forward before anyone moves further and now let’s get the bets down.
Verdict: Volkov is despised
Abubakar Vagaev (-210) vs.
Early bookmakers have opened this fight with Vagaev as a near -300 favorite, as the Chechen fighter makes his second UFC appearance against veteran Jacob Malkoun. The market should be improving rapidly so that the demonstration is more competitive – but there is still something left to express.
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Malkoun is 4-1 in his last UFC appearances, with the only loss coming by disqualification for a shot to the back against Cody Brundage. Malkoun almost had a TKO victory in that fight with plenty of legal shots, so it’s a bad break that the referee called him for a rarely committed back kick, and it’s always worse that he’s ruled by a DQ loss as opposed to a no contest.
Vagaev is 1-0 in the UFC with a close 29-28 decision over Saygid Izagakhmaev. A lot of fans have actually noted for Izagakhmaev, and it’s certainly a very close fight against an opponent who is now 0-2 in the UFC after losing to Nicolas Dalby 41 years ago. On top of that, Vagaev hasn’t finished a fight since 2017, with the last two of the season coming off inside-the-box knockouts.
Another point is that this fight is in the middleweight division, where Malkoun has consistently competed. Vagaev is coming out of welterweight, less than three months removed from his last fight. There is not a lot of time to pack extra muscle to prevent the movement of the Russian.
Most importantly, FanDuel is a bit behind the rest of the market in terms of correcting this line, and it’s almost certain that Malkoun will be at less than 150 in the near future, so it’s important to bet on this now.
Verdict: Malkoun is despised