The lightweight debate takes center stage this Saturday as the UFC returns to its Apex Arena for UFC Vegas 123.
Veteran contender Renato Moicano looks to build on the momentum of his knockout win over Chris Duncan in his last peak appearance in April. After Moicano lost in a rematch against Brian Ortega due to Ortega’s retirement, rising prospect Tom Nolan stepped in to fill the void, setting the stage for a fight at the heavyweight division.
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We could even stop the steps to fight these Apex nights, specifically, because you’re almost all in the same place – and “The same” is not exactly what it’s hyped about.
đź‘‘ UFC Vegas 123 Crown Line Rating: F. đź‘‘
Renato Moicano has shown that he is not ready to step on the rock just because he is still in the final fight.
(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)
155 pounds: Renato Moicano (-120) Tom Nolan vs.
So, Nolan was not Moicano’s first choice for this impromptu headliner. But boy, does it emphasize how much the UFC is looking at the Brazilian goalie at this stage.
This isn’t entirely unfair, though. Moicano, 37, while it’s unlikely he’ll be able to reach another title fight, has been given matchups that will make his fight end the fastest way to reach the final three of his UFC contract. However, shaking off expectations and coming forward effectively doesn’t prove anything to Moicano, other than showing that he’s still on the level we’ve always known from him as a capable, durable, medial grappler.
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Nolan, 26, commanded the ship with his loss to Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut. In each of his five straight wins, Nolan has looked better than the last, refining his technique and getting closer against more experienced opponents. That being said, the artist is no match for Moicano’s subjectivity.
Waiting for Nolan to look good on his feet, the shooting forces spread out until Moicano finds acceptance and brings the fight into his world. We cannot give enough credit to Moicano because of his excessive cruelty on earth, because it is easy to forget what he did to St. Denis Benedictus. But make no mistake, if you work at the top of the business, you work.
They collect: Moicano
170 pounds: Randy Brown (+225) vs.
Just as Randy Brown seemed to be putting everything together, he ran into – [checks notes] -Bryan Battle?
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OK, I was at Brown’s split decision loss to Fight and stand with one of the worst decisions of 2024. Luckily for “Rudeboy” he bounced back in a fun fight of the night against Nicolas Dalby, scoring a second-round knockout. Since then, Gabriel Bonfim and Kevin Holland have been failing things. While Bonfim’s loss is surprising in how it played out, the result is at least understandable in terms of where both men stand on the welterweight scale. Holland was not.
Smith, 30, has been a sinker, finishing all four of his UFC opponents so far. The experience gap is very much against him here, but it doesn’t matter how much Smith – he carries a very serious power factor that no one in the UFC has been able to overcome. Pair that with great speed, and Smith should have Brown in any trouble.
Collect: Smith
125 pounds: Ode Osbourne (-105) vs.
We love the split fly around these parts. REALLY. But you can’t convince me that this screen protector won’t fight in the number event.
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I mean, just looking at the numbers, guys are 4-11 (1 NC) in each of their eight previous fights.
This fight effectively beats the hell out of us, though — and it all comes down to whether Osbourne can get to Durden before he’s dragged to the mat. When it comes to getting thrown, Durden is pretty good at surviving finishing shots, but he’s often tagged and hurt. That led to submission losses rather than TKOs.
Damage-wise, Durden took on more in the recent draft. And the power given to Osbourne, which does not bode well for the American.
Pick: Osbourne
Luana Santos is ready to win the battle of Santos.
(Chris Unger via Getty Images)
135 pounds: Yana Santos (+240) vs.
Santos wins this one. The end of the story.
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(Jokes, y’all. Jokes.)
If he ever fought Yana Santos last, it’s probably because it’s been all year and he usually only fights once a year. But still, she posted a strong three-fight streak as a standout with performances over Macy Chiasson, Miesha Tate and Chelsea Chandler.
Luana Santos also enters this bout on a three-fight winning streak. So whatever, Santos has won four in a row once UFC Vegas 123 is all said and done.
Although Yana wins the better name value in her tribe, the writer Luana could be argued more heavily against newer, smaller opposition. Other than that, Luana has only lost to Casey O’Neill in the UFC, and there’s no shame in that.
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I have always been a Yana supporter since I was running for Invicta FC. She is a very solid striker, somewhat similar to Holly Holm with a more aggressive pace. It would be beneficial to teach them together. (Even though she eventually fought back.) Her inertia is around though, and against an aggressive attacker like Luana, Yana is pushed to her limits, forced to constantly fight with submissions when she’s down.
Pick up L. Santos
170 pounds: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (-310) vs.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani may have one of the biggest names in MMA today, but there’s no mistaking the man’s player. He was a fun striker to watch so far, but his strong throws and BJJ base can play right into Farman Hasanov’s game, as he likes to use his wrestling skills to put on smotheren performances.
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The fight feels a bit odd, given the experience between the two. Hasanov’s hope is solidly undefeated, but this match was made for Lebosnoyani.
They collect: Lebosnoyani
Previous Notes
Looking at this card, you probably have no idea the UFC recently signed a talented, undefeated, 12-0 dual-field prospect. That is, Lucia Szabova was buried in the premises of the lack of key Apex, opening the event against Tainara Lisboa. She has been added to the Octagon’s bantamweight and featherweight division for the women’s 125-pound division, where she debuts on Saturday. Sadly, the UFC doesn’t seem to care, so I’m here to tell you that his is the only fight worth considering on these grounds.
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A quick read:
Francis Marshall (-210) def. Dakota Hope (+175)
Roderic Sezinando (-175) def. Theodore Berggren (+145)
Julian Erosa (+135) def. Lee Jeong-yeong (-160)
Zachary Reese (-360) def. Mickey Gall (+280)
Joseph Kropschot (-350) def. Nick Klein (+275)
Talita Alencar (+240) def. Peter Rodriguez (-300)
Lucia Szabová (-750) def. Tainara Lisboa (+525)