It was an all-chalk US Open semifinal that featured the four best players in the world. Then Aryna Sabalenka shows how much distance between n. 1 and no. 3 can be
Against a familiar foe in Jessica Pegula, Sabalenka defeated the top-seeded American in the round 7-5, 6-2 to reach her fourth straight final at Flushing Meadows. Also, defending champion Pegula finished third in the US Open campaign.
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Sabalenka will face either No. 2 Elena Rybakina or No. 4 Coco Gauff in the final on Saturday, looking for the US Open jet three.
Here’s how Sabalenka’s past three finals went in New York;
2023: Loss vs. Coco Gauff, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2.
2024: Defeated Jessica Pegula, 7-5, 7-5.
2025: Amanda Anisimova, 6-3, 7-6
Sabalenka has also reached the last four Australian Opens, winning two of them. No other player in the history of tennis, male or female, has reached eight straight Grand Slam hardcourt finals, per veteran tennis journalist Christopher Clarey.
If Sabalenka matches that form from Thursday, it’s hard to see a world in which she doesn’t lift another trophy. It’s not like Pegula connected badly – she was far more accurate with her first serve compared to her quarterfinal match against Emma Navarro and did a decent job of parrying with Sabalenka on the baseline on the first day.
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But on the other side of the court there was simply another magnitude of power. Sabalenka had more erratic errors, but everything on serve paid off by going for high-risk, high-reward shots more and more as the match progressed.
Sabalenka finished the match with 29 winners to match 12, plus seven aces. Pegula hit 41-of-60 first serves, but she missed 19 where the match was won. Sabalenka won 14 of those 19 second-serve points, with six perfect winners.
The two players remained on serve for the first 11 games, then the match slipped into the draw. As Pegula told reporters after the match;
“I don’t know what happened today, but she did.” [trails off] I hope it wasn’t me at all, but I don’t know if it was. She plays crazy. He played at a very high level. Honestly, I don’t really know if I could do much today.”
Sabalenka showed early frustration after several power shots were left long, but it was Pegula, almost one of the most consistent players on the tour, who shot her stick after leaving a difficult ball into the net in the penultimate game.
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The No. 1 ranking is still far away for Aryna Sabalenka, for now
Sabalenka did all this a day after officially losing her No. 1 ranking.
It doesn’t matter how the next two days go, Rybakina will be the top player in the WTA rankings. She overcame that status by simply reaching the semifinals.
It’s an unusual situation, but that’s just how tennis ranking points work. Sabalenka entered this US Open as the No. 1 in part because of the 2,000 points she earned by winning the US Open last year, then she had to defend 2,000 points and no wins. Meanwhile, Rybakina only reached the fourth round of the year and had a stone’s throw to better her performance by 20 points.
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What Sabalenka can do, ranking wise, is put more pressure on Rybakina for that ranking over the next few months. Rybakina hasn’t made much of the US Open at least this year, but she has 3,500 points from her combined titles at the WTA finals and this year’s Australian Open.
Sabalenka’s current streak as No. 1 will end after 99 weeks, the sixth-longest reign in WTA history. The next step is to not get too far away if she wins on Saturday.
How many more Grand Slam chances will Jessica Pegula get?
It’s hard to imagine a world where Pegula wins that match when Sabalenka plays at that level. The high floor runs into a high ceiling player who was right up to that ceiling, throwing some of the hardest pitches and serves on the road.
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Pegula didn’t think much of his chances when he spoke to reporters:
“Since he just played today, I think he’s going to hit somebody. I’m not 100% sure, obviously, but I think he probably hit 99% of the tour.”
Pegula has had a great career, going from a late bloomer to a legitimate top 5 player. Her 50 wins lead on the WTA this year with titles in Dubai and Charleston.
However, the only player in the current top 6 without a Grand Slam title remains, the 32-year-old. He ran into a buzzsaw on Thursday and this was basically one of his two results in the majors since he was a regular in the top 10. A weak start in the first laps, or a buzzsaw in the later laps. Sabalenka has fallen in each of the past three US Opens, twice in the semifinals and once in the finals. She was taken by Rybakina at the Australian Open and Gauff at Wimbledon this year.
You don’t want to be in this position when you don’t know how many years of great tennis you have ahead of you. However, as Alexander Zverev showed this year at Roland-Garros, sometimes it can take some time to fix it, so you never expect it, but you definitely get it.
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Now, though, it will only be multi-time Grand Slam winners in the US Open women’s final.