All four MLB Wild-Card Opening Rounds take place on Tuesday, with the first pitch from the National League – and the NL East, to be precise – as the Phillies visit the Braves to open the best-of-3 series. While Atlanta no doubt has ace Chris Sale on the mound (though his play has been sketchy), Philadelphia will mix and match today pitcher-wise. Bet $5+ on any of today’s MLB games to get $150 in bonus bets at DraftKings Sportsbook:
It’s at 2 pm ET the first voice from Truist Park and will be shown on NBC. The weather looks excellent: a clear sky. High near 83F. Winds light and variable. At -199 via DraftKings, Atlanta gets 79% of the handle and 91% of the bets, while getting a solid 6.5 overall action.
It is the third time that these rivals have met in the playoffs. The Phillies won both the 2023 and 2022 NLDS in four games each over the Braves (the Phils also won the only other matchup in 1993). That 2023 Atlanta team led the majors in the regular season with 104 wins, and the Braves had home field advantage in both series.
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Phillies vs
- Atlanta money line
- The race runs to 6 and not
DrafKings SGP price: 124 (subject to change)
This year was the Braves’ seventh NL East title in the past 30 seasons, but they have only reached one Classic in that span, in 2021. This was also the last time they reached the NLCS. Philadelphia, meanwhile, became just the sixth team in MLB history to reach the seventh hour despite a double-digit losing streak.
In this series line, Atlanta is -125 and Philadelphia is +105, with the Braves taking a double game lead as a +210 lead and a Phillies sweep as a +380 long shot. The Over/Under is 2.5 games, with the slight wind.
Atlanta won the regular season series 9-4. Ronald Acuna Jr. he was good at it, hitting .380 with four homers and 10 RBI. Austin Leo also had four digits with 11 strikeouts. Michael Harris hit .419 with three homers and nine RBI. Phillies star Kyle Schwarber, who is tied with Pete Crow-Armstong for the Cubs lead with 45 homers, has five hits in the season series and has knocked in 10. Schwarber’s 23 career home runs are tied for the third-most in MLB history.
Philadelphia’s trade acquisition Luis Arraez went 7 of 13 and hit just .250. The three-time batting champion was leading the NL in average last week until he sprained his left ankle Thursday and hasn’t played since. That allowed Arizona’s Gabriel Moreno to finish just ahead of Arraez at .311 to .310 for the NL crown. He’s not on the WC roster, which surprised me a little as I thought maybe the team would put him in pinch-hit potential.
The Phillies are playing almost the biggest late-season choke in the Wild Card Era but managed to claim a NL WC final spot over Arizona (which ended up losing Sunday anyway) after losing a six-game losing streak on Sunday last season. It’s a fact that the Phillies had to use co-ace Zack Wheeler for most of Sunday’s games. He was otherwise a Game 1 starter in Atlanta, which is where Wheeler is.
Jesús Luzardo (14-5, 2.86 ERA) returned from the injured list Sunday and started against opposing hitters for the first time since the seventh day on Sept. 7. the need for only four words to mark the three indicated, and that proved huge in allowing Luzardo to start here as an opener. It’s not clear how long this would mean with either the Over/Under indicated in DK, but Luzardo was placed in O/U 2.5 Ks. This year 221, the sixth and major in the majors.
Rookie Andrew Painter seems to be the bulk guy, which is an interesting option considering he’s not having a 3-10 year with a 5.40 ERA. The senior prospect is 0-2 this year with a 5.52 ERA and .323 batting average in three starts against the Braves. The 23-year-old had a better day in September with a 3.49 ERA and pitched a quality start last Thursday in the final vs. Milwaukee. Acuna is 3-for-9 with a home run and Harris is 5-for-6 with a hit and a double.
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While the Phillies had to settle for the last second in regular season in the field, the Braves were really in cruise control a bit, locked in as the NL’s No. 3 seed So everything lined up perfectly in terms of healthy players, their best starter and a very rested bullpen.
Sale won the 2024 NL Cy Young Award but hasn’t pitched in the playoffs since 2021 with Boston. In three complete starts, Sale is 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA in 10 appearances over 34.1 innings; 7.24 ERA in seven starts, completing four five innings. But the southpaw was his typically awesome self this season, going 14-9 with a 2.16 ERA (third in MLB), 200 strikeouts (T-11) and a 0.98 ERA (fifth).
In four starts against the Phillies, he was 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 26 innings, holding batters to a collective .167 average. The Phils may not be sitting former NL MVP Bryce Harper, but Sale is a wild 2-for-21 career with 11 strikeouts.
The model predicts Sale at 5.9 innings, 7.3 strikeouts, 5.2 hits allowed and 2.0 earned runs. A Phillies lineup that couldn’t hit at all in September ranks 29th in batting average (.226), slugging percentage (.356), OPS (.660) and runs per game (3.71).
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I don’t want to say that the Braves have to win the game, but if they lose against this mash-up of pitching and then face Cristopher Sanchez on Wednesday with the season on the line, well that wouldn’t be ideal. For example, the Braves have a score of 3.7-3.4. I’d be surprised if either team is short of a slam. Probably even five, but I’d rather be careful. Check out other financial experts read on SportsLine daily.