The past two seasons haven’t gone away as the Arizona Diamondbacks have thought about finishing outside the playoff picture every season since the Magic’s 2023 World Series run. What we all hoped the powerhouse parties would do is turn out to be more of a team that turned the corner from a 3rd place mid-major to a 90+ win season powerhouse. Entering the 2026-2027 offseason, perhaps it is time for this team to receive something of a change of identity if they are to turn the corner. With that said, owner Ken Kendrick has already gone on the record saying the payroll is likely to come down from record highs in 2026. So the question is, does this team have a real way to finally turn the corner?
For this project, I chose 85 projects as test wins. The 2027 projections in this article for the 2027 roster are projections from the Marcel-style WAR model (system Tom Tango), built on FanGraphs WAR as of Oct. 3. As it’s currently constructed, with no additions, the 2027 D-backs pitch at about 80 (79.9; preseason projections carry about ±8 percent uncertainty). The number 85 came from me running many offseason scenarios, and 85 was about the ceiling that I could compare projections with for this team with financial possibilities and real trade values. I will describe them in the following article.
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Resources
To help answer that question, I think instead of commanding what possibilities this team has realistically going into the offseason. On October 3rd, Jack Sommers outlined the phenomenal job that the Dbacks financial situation will likely be heading into the offseason with almost 162.8M committed already. I suggest you read that article to get a full breakdown of everything that’s on that list. The funds for the year 2026 were 192.8M LRD or about 30 million more than what is currently committed. It is also likely that the non-tender team Pavinus Smith who could save more than 2 million and torulo some money around the compromises of the contract, however at the end of this article, allows the football and Kendrick meant what he said and this team has about 25M to spend this offseason or a small reduction in salary drop of only 2.6%.
In addition to money, lets see what real Dbacks are available for trading;
I’ll be the first to admit that these fine arts are a bit hand-wringing, as it’s really impossible to know how everyone in this organization is valued. I have tried a method that includes projections of future production as well as contract and control years included in some MLB Pipeline FV state prospect spreads. This album is far from perfect, but the initial scent has given some evidence that I’m going to go with it.
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So how much art value do we stick to concrete things? I applied the same method to the first list of some of the contexts here and this is what I got;
What did I gather from it? The Dbacks are going to have a really hard time getting a hit in front of the starting lineup given the trades they have. All four standard chips combined (Lawlar, Waldschmidt, Bratt, Fernandez) come to market for about $45-78M.
Then he allowed himself to try the same table but used his left hand to push the bats;
So at bat from the Pasquin level (10-18): one premium chip or two secondary pieces. That’s like a Troy + Dix package, or maybe a Drake + Groover package. Not really a big deal considering the years of power you’re trading for a nice 1st dimension type player. Do you hand over Troy + Morillo to a platoon bat like Colt Kieth or a 28 year old who is hitting at a 30% clip in Kyle Stowers?
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So does a trade really make sense to go out and try and get the impact level talent (2-3WAR players) this team needs? It’s not as likely as you think.
How to Get to 85+ Wins?
This is where things get really interesting. In almost every scenario I’ve modeled to win this team of 85+, it involves almost the same strategy. Essentially, the whole principle of rotation is judicious. The beginning of the conversion, as it is now constructed, heals the Achilles tendons. The D-back rotation currently projects in the bottom third of MLB (measured around 21-23 by the author’s model), with Merrill Kelly pitching under 1 WAR over 180 innings and Corbin Burnes’ pitching limited by his Tommy John surgery.
The rotation is the biggest weakness in the current roster: it stands out around 21 eighteen clubs and averages 1.7 WAR below the rotation average, over some 870 innings. First base projects are even lower than the league, but there is one spot on the line; The rotation gap is larger in total wins and cheaper to close. That’s why most tracks start at 85 there, with the first-base/left-handed bat and the bullpen as a secondary priority.
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Another common theme, Ketel traded with Mars to free up capital. According to the best estimates, Ketel Marte trades this company about 13.75M of LRD keeps flexibility in 2027.
Motion
Route A: First two free agents + 4 trades (85.3 wins for ~$187.3M)
Route B: One free agent starter + 4 trades (85.0 wins, $181.9M salary)
conclusion
This exercise limits my ability to accurately assess the skill value of players, but I did my best. Ultimately, that assessment varies from team to team as to how they estimate that they don’t have access to me from their accounts and their known accounts. One of the biggest variables I found while doing this was what the value of Ketel Mars was going to be. To do that I really focused on the teams that I thought had the greatest need and wanted to take the extra luggage with me when most of the emigration took place.
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Another thing that was interesting to me is that all roads seem to go through Trevor Rogers! My examples are really similar to that of a cad starting a project with an added win rate per dollar amount. In swapping Rogers for Soroka you can certainly argue that the interest in returning Soroka has been reported, however my projections are only about 1.8 WAR for Soroka compared to 2.9 WAR for Trevor Rogers, although Rogers also has some longevity concerns.
On the other hand, the guys Colt Keith and Lawrence Butler were probably hoping people wouldn’t have similar names. However, I believe Colt Keith 1 could be assigned a 2nd base real weakness in Detroit that Tommy Troy could fill and Keith’s production against the oaths has been quite steady. 3B is also free if Arenado really wants to move Nolan to first, but Keith isn’t that good of a 3rd basemen compared to Arenado. Although Keith played some 1B. My models also really like Butler in that he’s a lefty and has been steady against righties xwOBA .347 / .320 / .339 (2024–26) with high-end bat speed and exit velocity. Especially DH for us righties.
At the end of the day, it’s impossible to know which direction the Dbacks will go. Recently, some reported that the team was used to starting young defensive positions, but it’s certainly different than tearing apart this rotation. Also, the volume of the trades cut makes both of these sessions inconvenient, as it is difficult to make trades and because of the lockout density.
For me, I like both of these scenarios because I was able to keep the big 3 bullpen intact while also staying within the team’s financial constraints, while also avoiding completely gutting the farm even though it takes a hit. What do you guys think?