The Oklahoma City Thunder announced that Chet Holmgren underwent treatment on Friday to address a small patellar tendon tear in his right knee, an injury that would keep him out of the lineup for the next 8-10 weeks.
With Jalen Williams out for the season following a gruesome leg injury and Cason Wallace set to miss most of the season after surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, the Thunder are now without three of their top six players on the roster less than a month into the season.
The Thunder are off to just a 4-1 start, but a lopsided loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night with Holmgren out offered a glimpse into how difficult life will be with another star on the shelf.
What do the injuries to Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace mean for the Thunder and why is the trade not so simple?
Sam Quinn
A team that began the season as partners in the Western Conference alongside the San Antonio Spurs with a total win over 60Now they take on the challenge of taking a place in the top four in the West, having lost so much production expectations two weeks into the season.
Oklahoma State has dominated in recent seasons largely because of its tremendous depth, but this summer saw the first steps in shedding that because of the dangers of losing the secondary and the rising costs of keeping a talented young core together. The loss of three contributors in Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe was determined, and while the cost measures were understandable, they exacerbated the challenge of the most serious injuries to the key players in the three levels of the area.
If there is a silver lining, Holmgren’s injury only cost him two months. But with Wallace and Williams out, losing one of the league’s best quarterbacks will be a very difficult thing. This season was already going to be a struggle for coach Mark Daigneault without two key cycling stars, but now he has to switch his lines across the board with Holmgren.
Time to sink or swim at Aday Mara
The Thunder probably opted to bring a rookie big man through their lineup, but with Holmgren, a 7-foot center out of Michigan, he’ll have a bigger spot in the rotation. Mara impressed on the spot in his debut against Victor Wembanyama on the opening night, showing why he brought the thunder to fight his main rival with rare size and length to harass him and ease the stress Holmgren faces dealing with Wemby.
Mara then picked up his first double-double in a win over the Phoenix Suns on Monday, when he got Holmgren’s first extended fire, scoring 11 points and knocking down 10 boards in 20 minutes. He was less effective in 21 minutes against the Mavs, and the Thunder will have to navigate the ups and downs of rookie experience as Mara gets more comfortable in his expanded role.
Offensively, Mara is the playmaker at the rim. So far this season, 80% of his field goal attempts have come within four feet of the rim and 75% of his attempts have been missed. With Mara on the floor, the offense has to adapt to what they can do with the rest of their center rotation. Where Isaiah Hartenstein can be a high post center and Holmgren and Jaylin Williams can space the floor, Mara has less variability to play. That doesn’t mean he can’t make it, but the adjustment requires the Oklahoma City tight end to find him in the right spots and find ways to still create space for others when he’s on the floor.
On defense, Mara gives them a much-needed edge protector and has proven to be a high-quality shot blocker already with seven blocks in five games despite relatively light minutes. However, like many young shot-blockers, Mara is learning to navigate increased minute loads without getting bogged down. He collected nine goals in his two games in less than 20 minutes. Defense will be Mara on the call sheet, and over the next couple of months, the Thunder will hope to see him continue to learn without being involved in order to increase his time on the floor.
The Thunder have never looked this season to watch the development, but they have little fun in this part other than what Mara is embracing. He has the potential to be a key contributor to this team and play a valuable role as they prepare for a decade-long battle with Wembley-led Spurs. With Holmgren out, he’s going to have a much bigger opportunity to go to the field than expected early in his rookie year, and maybe split the way Oklahoma City is paying off.
Is this a change in OKC’s approach to the trade market?
With Williams out for a year and Wallace, at least, out, plenty of noise surrounding the Thunder exploring their options on the trade market. Much is unlikely to happen until at least December 15, when the players who signed this summer become available, but Oklahoma City is set to spend another month evaluating its roster and keeping an eye on potential additions around the league to remain in the contending realm.
With Holmgren, one wonders whether the odds are changing for Sam Presti – or at least the time to make a move. Holmgren is expected to return in January, which allows the Thunder to wait until he returns and see how the upcoming knee bend plays out for a few weeks before the trade deadline.
Five ways the NBA injury crisis could impact the trade season: OKC needs work, Rockets in control
Sam Quinn
The Thunder will be able to control the center rotation of Hartenstein, Williams and Mara for two more months – with more Kenrich Williams in the four as well – their focus will still be on the added wing and backcourt.
You can quickly see exactly what this season has to offer before moving in for a significant period of time. The Thunder could try to weather the storm with their roster until Holmgren comes back and see where they stand in the West before deciding whether to make a minor trade move or make a more fundamental move.
Could Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win a third straight MVP?
No one has won three straight MVPs since Larry Bird in the 1980s. For one, it’s hard to maintain that level for three straight seasons, but as we’ve seen over the years, even when the bigs stay in the MVP conference, voter fatigue typically sets in when a player wins two and the voters look for another.
However, with injuries piling up in Oklahoma City, if he ever breaks his one-year drought and becomes the first three-time MVP in 40 years, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could pull this Thunder team to another top-four seed with such a rare roster.
It’s been a relatively slow start to Gilgeous-Alexander’s season, averaging 26.0 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists on a wild 45.9/26.5/87.5 shooting split. This type of production obviously won’t get him a third-season MVP award, but if he can elevate himself at his level and carry this Thunder squad through half a season without Holmgren and get the most out of it without Williams and Wallace, he’ll have real consideration.
The NBA’s ‘unprecedented’ season’s injury crisis has answers for players and coaches
Jack Maloney
Some of his appeals will be determined by who else is in the starting mix — Luka Dončić seems poised to put up numbers in LA — but the circumstances in Oklahoma City this season are so unique that Gilgeous-Alexander can run back-to-back MVPs that fail to follow the third line slide.
The Gilgeous-Alexander story will determine exactly how the Thunder proceed this season. If he’s playing at his typical MVP level and the Thunder are seen as a threat, Presti may have no choice but to try and make coaching a pre-season announcement as a backup to chase another championship. If it’s a down year for Gilgeous-Alexander without some of his top players around him, maybe there’s less of a push to make it all this season and Oklahoma City could look to weather the storm and hope for better health in 2027-28.