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New York Yankees (3), Tampa Bay Rays (1), 8:00 PM EDT
NYY: RHP Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.95 ERA, 66 DRAWS); TB: RHP Freddy Peralta (10-11, 4.42 ERA, 108 DRA- but 5-2, 3.25 ERA, 112 DRA- at Tampa Bay)
There was a time when, if you said Tampa Bay was beating the Yankees with Drew Rasmussen on the mound, who started Gerrit Cole in the first game of a playoff series, you’d think the Yankees were struggling. I mean, Rasmussen, the fine pitcher, but Cole is a $36 million staff ace, right?
There was also a time when you think, but that time is not 2026. Rasmussen has confirmed himself as one of the best pitchers of the game, healthy enough to no longer sit on the opinion “while healthy”, while Cole, in his first season from Tommy John surgery, was no more than the club’s no.3, and this can be a slight to Ryan Weathers, Will Warren, and that is a slight to Ryan Carlos, Will Warren.
Schlittler is clearly the league’s best pitcher this year. It’s not a question of whether he’ll win the Cy Young Award, it’s how high he’ll finish in the MVP voting. He led the league in ERA and DRA and was tied for first in FIP. He pitched lefties (2.24 FIP, 68 DRA-) and righties (2.89 FIP, 65 DRA-). He was good at home (2.98 ERA, 2.70 FIP) and deadly on the road (1.16 ERA, 2.35 FIP). His fastball, slider, sinker, and curve are all rated by StuffPro. In three games against the Rays this year, he struck out 21 and walked just three in 16 innings, allowing a 1.06 ERA and a 2.81 ERA. Tampa Bay is like Rasmussen’s Yankees, but more.
Peralta is more of a mystery. His reported numbers following his reported trade from the Mets indicate an improvement — ERA from 4.99 to 3.25, WHIP from 1.48 to 1.01 — but his FIP declined somewhat less from 4.51 to 3.87, and his DRA rose from 4.79 to 5.10, largely due to the poor earned runs he gave up. His BABIP allowed fell from .315 with the Mets to .235 with the Rays. Some of that explains the benefit of playing in front of the Rays defense instead of the Mets, but not entirely. He had the normal lineup splits, which suggests problems for right-handed pitchers against the Yankees, but this is a game at Tropicana Field, not Yankee Stadium, and this is a Yankees lineup that managed just one hit against right-handed Rays two days earlier. However, the odds for tonight’s matchup are solidly in favor of New York.