At the beginning of October, I had high hopes for the Triple Crown fan 2026-27. My main team, the Spurs are the co-favorites to win this all season. My two local teams were also favorites – the Dodgers, already in the NLCS looking for a three-peat, and the Rams were all favorites to win the Super Bowl. While nothing has changed for the pitchers, a lot has changed for the Dodgers and the Roms. The Dodgers, the two-time defending World Series team, were soon swept 4 – 0 by the Milwaukee Brewers. The Rams are preseason favorites 2 – 3, and about three games behind the 49ers, who are currently Vegas’ favorites. The Rams certainly have a better chance than the Dodgers, who have none.
To make matters worse, I just realized that if we look back, every team in the “400 finals” for every league has lost. The Rams lost to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game, the Spurs lost to the NBA Finals, and the Dodgers lost to the Brewers. As the spurs against the Knicks, the Dodgers led in every game. I don’t know what you’d call the opposite of the expected Triple Crown, but it’s not very nice.
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But let’s go back to waiting. The Spurs remain co-favorites with OKC to win this season. For the league, GMs picked the Spurs ahead of OKC, with 77% predicting that Victor Wembayama will be the MVP. 2,000% of GMs also predicted Victor to repeat as Defensive Player of the Year, though I might have the percentage slightly off.
Closer to the top of this post, Dylan Harper is the most likely player to have a breakout year, ahead of Cooper Flagg (27% to 7%). That vote could see Flagg start from a much higher base, as he averaged 21 points, 6.7 boards and 4.5 assists last season. It’s a bit more difficult to “break” out of numbers like this.
But I don’t want to argue that the “Three Guardians” is going on in the universe. I have addressed this several times in the last season, showing that the three best guards are a good thing and not a “problem”. For example, before the training camp opened in 2025, I wrote the following;
“All of basketball has unanimously approved the pick of the spurs in Dylan Harper as the clear second best player in the 2025 NBA draft. The only concern I’ve heard is that Harper’s skills mesh with those of the expected starting backcourt De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.
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Having trained a little, I know that having three good guards in two meals is a good thing, not a bad thing. The reason is simple – the players do not play all 48 minutes. Actually, the spurs’ best player last year (you know his name) averaged only 33 minutes per game. In 17 games with the spurs, Fox averaged 34 minutes while Camp averaged 27. If Fox and Camp play the same amount this season, they will play a total of 61 minutes out of the 96 minutes available. 35 minutes are left for Harper or others – for example. if Devin Vassell splits his season between 2 and 3, Harper won’t be 20 years old until March 2016 — and 20 is likely about the number of minutes for such a young player in his rookie season.
This prediction was remarkably accurate – during his season, Fox averaged 31 minutes, Castle 30 and Harper 22. In the playoffs, those numbers were tied at 33, 33 and 27. Interestingly, Devin Vassel led the team in playoff minutes with 34.8 per game, slightly more than Victor. Of course, Victor was fired early in the T’Wolves game, dropping his average minutes per game down a bit.
But I return to the three guards. Fox, Castle and the playoff writer 100 93 minutes per game which meant that the Spurs had their two best guards on the floor almost all the time – the way you want them. If the Spurs play all three together for portions of each game, and try to keep minutes per player close to 32 per game, that will necessarily mean that for portions of each game, only one will be on the floor. If the goal is to increase the number of lead balls in the area, the system of the last time seems preferable. (Side note – The Spurs won 62 games last season and made it to the NBA Finals. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.). Of course, I’m OK with increasing Harper’s minutes played from 22 in the regular season, and 27 in the playoffs, but it can be done with the 2026-27 season model instead of forcing three line-ups.
For no one in the spurs more than 32 minutes per game in the regular season – a Spurs tradition that keeps players fresh and their careers lasting. This also allows non-printers to get real minutes and stay sharp. As long as Harper is getting his minutes, no one should care who starts. Something Manu Ginobili can certainly testify to.
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This is especially true because while the spurs don’t have a logjam in the rear, they do in the front. Assuming Victor, Luke Kornet and the rookie center absorb all 48 minutes, that leaves 96 minutes for the two forward spots. The Spurs have a bunch of good players competing for those minutes. Vassel, Julian Champagnie, Tobias Harris, Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant, and Harrison Barnes. That’s six legitimate NBA players.
Last season, the two starters, Vassell and Champaigne, combined for 58 for 96 minutes. Harris averaged 28 minutes in Detroit, and should play almost the same year. We are up to 86 minutes leaving only 10 minutes for 6″th* Man of the Year Johnson, potential star Bryant and whatever minutes Barnes gets. If the Spurs use three point guards for up to ten minutes per game, that leaves ZERO minutes for Johnson, Bryant and Barnes. And I’m pretty sure the Spurs won’t significantly cut the minutes of either Vasseli or Champagne. Fun fact: those two were more or less in second and third place in the team. You can guess who had the best one.
If I had a vote, which I would not, I would vote to darken the line of three thousand.
POSTSCRIPT:
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I wrote most of this before Friday night’s preseason game against the Suns. Spurs started the game with three keepers, plus Vasssel and Victor. When the spurs made their first substitution (Champagne for Fox) at the 6:34 mark of the first quarter, they were already behind by 16 points, 24 – 8. Mitch Johnson said that three OKC guards will start in the open season on Tuesday. Maybe that’s why I don’t have a vote.