Equibase Analysis: Faithful Departed Eyes Initial Grade 1 Victory In Queen Elizabeth

The 43rd running of the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, a staple of the Keeneland fall meet since the first edition in 1984, drew a highly competitive field of 11 sophomore fillies to the Lexington, Ky., track. Run at 1 1/8 miles on the turf, the QEII boasts a $750,000 purse. Five of the 11 entrants have won a graded stakes including Grade 1 winners Tam Tam and Kensington Lane. Recent past winners include champions Rushing Fall and She Feels Pretty, plus Gina Romantica, who went on to win Keeneland’s G1 First Lady in back-to-back years. This year’s edition shapes up as a fantastic race and an opportunistic betting affair.

Here’s a look at the field from the rail out:

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Haute Diva, a Constitution filly with the highest morning line in the field of 30-1, drew the inside for trainer Patrick Biancone with Keith Asmussen back aboard. Haute Diva has won on all-weather, dirt and has just three career starts over the sod with a win and a second. Last time out, despite being pinched at the start and finishing sixth in the G2 Beverly D at Colonial, she earned a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure (ESF). Luster, the 5-2 morning-line favorite, is fresh off a dominant win in the King’s Plate, where she beat the boys by 7 ½ lengths on the all-weather at Woodbine and earned a 108 ESF for trainer Josie Carroll. The Knicks Go filly started her career on the turf with two wins by a combined winning margin of 11 ¼ lengths including a five-length win in an allowance at Keeneland in April. John Velazquez, who was aboard for her wins in the Woodbine Oaks and King’s Plate along with the victory at Keeneland, will be back in the irons. Tam Tam is coming off back-to-back wins at the stakes level with a 5 ¾-length victory in the Tepin Stakes in June and a 1 ¼-length win in the G1 Del Mar Oaks last time out in August over fellow QEII contenders Lookin At Diamond and Kensington Lane. The Medaglia d’Oro filly has never run out of the money on turf with four wins, a second and a third from six starts. Trained by Phil Bauer, Tam Tam will have regular rider Junior Alvarado in the saddle. Faithful Departed, a Yoshida filly, is coming off back-to-back runner-up finishes in the G1 Belmont Oaks and G2 Saratoga Oaks for trainer Grant Forster. In May, Faithful Departed won the G3 Regret Stakes over QEII contenders Storm’s Wake and Tam Tam. Jose Ortiz will be back aboard for the fifth consecutive time.

Turner’s Charm, a Not This Time filly trained by Brendan Walsh, broke her maiden at Keeneland last October as a 2-year-old. Turner’s Charm was then sidelined for nearly seven months and won an allowance optional claiming at Churchill in her 3-year-old debut off the long layoff. Last time out, she finished a distant third in the G3 Dueling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs. Ben Curtis will be in the irons for the fifth consecutive time. Braida ships in from her native France for her North American debut for trainer Francis-Henri Graffard, who won the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf with Gezora and the last two renewals of France’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe with Daryz. Braida won three of five starts across the pond including a win last time out in the Prix de la Cochere at Longchamp on Sept. 3. Vincent Cheminaud will be aboard for his first mount of the Keeneland meet and his only mount of the day. Following a fourth-place finish to Kensington Lane (IRE) and Faithful Departed in the G1 Belmont Oaks, Storm’s Wake went on to win the Old Dominion Oaks at Colonial in her next start. The Oscar Performance filly made her one start at Keeneland a winning one in April with a 21-1 upset in the G2 Appalachian. Tyler Gaffalione will be first-time riding for trainer Brian Lynch. Lookin At Diamond, a Lookin At Lucky filly, finished runner-up to Tam Tam last time out in the Del Mar Oaks at odds of 40-1 for trainer Leonard Powell, who has made just four starts at Keeneland over the last five years. Julien Leparoux, who was aboard for the Del Mar Oaks, will be back in the irons for his first mount of the Keeneland meet and only mount of the day.

Kensington Lane shipped in from her native Ireland in July to win the Belmont Oaks in front-running fashion in her first start in North America. Last time out in her first start in the Phil D’Amato barn, she finished third in the Del Mar Oaks after setting the pace. Joel Rosario, who was aboard for both of her starts in North America, retains the mount. Deep Learning, a Cairo Prince filly trained by Chad Brown, will be stretching out to nine furlongs for the first time. Deep Learning is a career five-for-six in the money, and has made four graded stakes appearances. Flavien Prat, who was aboard for four of six of her career starts, will be reunited for the first time since their runner-up finish in the G3 Lake George on Aug. 1. Soloist, an Into Mischief filly out of Grade 1 winner Daddys Lil Darling, drew the far outside for trainer Kenny McPeek. Last time out, Soloist finished a close second to Storm’s Wake in the Old Dominion Oaks and seeks the first win of her 3-year-old campaign. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be aboard for the first time.

Analysis and Main Contenders:

Faithful Departed is a talented filly who has been targeting this race and is due for a win as she exits two fantastic efforts at the Grade 1 and Grade 2 levels. Apart from her career debut on dirt finishing a distant seventh, Faithful Departed has been a model of consistency and has never finished more than 2 ¾ lengths off the winner in any race on turf. Following a fourth-place finish by 1 ¾ lengths in her first start on turf as a 2-year-old, Faithful Departed won her 3-year-old debut at Fair Grounds in an impressive closing run. She followed that up with a narrow second-place finish in the LeCombe Memorial Stakes at Fair Grounds at odds of 35-1, improving her ESF from a 72 to an 89. Faithful Departed shipped back to Kentucky in April to turn back in distance in the one-mile Appalachian and closed well but may have needed more ground, finishing sixth to Storm’s Wake by just 2 ¾ lengths while increasing her speed figure to a 94 ESF. Just three weeks later, she returned to the 1 1/16-distance in an allowance at Churchill and again improved to a 98 ESF with a late rally to win by three-quarters of a lengths. In May, she stretched out to this nine-furlong distance for the first time and really found her stride, splitting horses into the lane to win the Regret at Churchill by 2 ¼ lengths over Storm’s Wake and Tam Tam, who went on to win the Tepin Stakes and Del Mar Oaks in her next two starts.

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Faithful Departed earned a 108 ESF for her effort in the Regret, which ties as the highest ESF of any filly earned in this field. In July, Faithful Departed shipped up to Saratoga for her toughest test yet in the Belmont Oaks. She trailed the field through the first quarter and moved from ninth to second in a single point of call and ran a game second to Kensington Lane, who set a moderate pace and held. Last time out, Faithful Departed stretched out to 1 3/16 miles in the Saratoga Oaks and again put together a brilliant rally from sixth to first in a single point of call but narrowly missed by a head to Kentucky Belle, who went on to dominate the G3 Dueling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs by 6 ¾ lengths in her next start. Faithful Departed should really benefit from the half-furlong turnback in distance to her preferred nine furlongs in this race and no doubt will have a quick turn of foot come the quarter pole. A meaningful positive is Jose Ortiz staying aboard, as he has two wins and two seconds aboard Faithful Departed, three of which were at the graded level. While Forster and Ortiz have not had a ton of starts together over the years, they have been able to find much success together. In the last five years, Forster and Ortiz win at a tremendous 41 percent in all races together (seven-for-17) and finish 71 percent in the money with a 35 percent return on investment. Their win percentage increases to 47 percent from 15 starts in the Kentucky circuit over the same five years as well. Faithful Departed has been targeting this race since the Saratoga Oaks in August and has been working forwardly over the Churchill Downs training track since, including a four-furlong breeze in :47.40 on Oct. 1. With her return to her preferred distance, winning connections and ability to close strong into a slow or hot pace, Faithful Departed is a formidable contender and could very well become a Grade 1 winner on Saturday.

Tam Tam has been a steadily improving filly since her 2-year-old campaign and has started to hit her best strides as of late. Tam Tam broke her maiden in her 3-year-old debut in her first start on the turf at Gulfstream Park in February, earning an 82 ESF. She then followed that up with a narrow victory in the Sanibel Island Stakes at Gulfstream in March, going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf and again improving to a 90 ESF. Tam Tam then stretched out to 1 1/16 miles for the first time in the G2 Edgewood on Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill and just missed by a head but still improving to a 104 ESF. Tam Tam then regressed a bit in the Regret to Faithful Departed, earning a 103 ESF and finishing third by 3 ¼ lengths.

Since the Regret, Tam Tam has really started to dominate. In the Tepin Stakes at Churchill going a mile on the turf, Tam Tam drew clear to win by 5 ¾ lengths and earning a 104 ESF. Last time out, she stalked a slow pace set by Kensington Lane in the Del Mar Oaks, her toughest race yet with a class rating of a 106. Tam Tam took command at the eighth pole and did not look back, drawing clear to win by 1 ¼ lengths improving to a career-best 105 ESF. Tam Tam passed the nine-furlong test in her second start at the distance with flying colors and is in prime position to stalk the pace presumably set yet again by Kensington Lane in the QEII. A notable positive is Junior Alvarado retaining the mount as he has been aboard five of her six starts on turf, including all her stakes wins. Phil Bauer and Alvarado win at an impressive 35 percent in all races together over the last five years (13-for-37) and finish 65 percent in the money with a 33 percent return on investment. Tam Tam has wonderful opportunity to pick up a second Grade 1 victory in this race especially if she continues her increasing speed figure pattern.

Luster is another filly in this field who has been remarkably consistent as well as having continual improving speed figures. Bred in Ontario, Luster started her career on a yielding Woodbine turf going seven furlongs and dominated by 6 ¼ lengths. Luster then shipped to Keeneland to again dominate when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles on the turf, ridden out to a five-length victory at the allowance level under John Velazquez and improving from an 83 to 86 ESF. She then returned home to Woodbine for her stakes debut in the seven-furlong Ruling Angel Stakes on the all-weather, which was her first and only loss finishing third by just 1 ¼ lengths but still improved to an 88 ESF. Luster returned to the 1 1/16-mile distance but remained on the all-weather in the G3 Selene Stakes and was much the best, improving to a 93 ESF for the win. In the Woodbine Oaks on July 19, John Velazquez was back aboard for the first time since the Keeneland win and the pair again went on to dominate by 5 ½ lengths and improving again to a 98 ESF in her first start at the 1 1/8-mile distance on all-weather. Last time out on Woodbine’s synthetic surface in the King’s Plate, a race restricted to Canadian-breds, Luster faced her toughest test against the boys. Off as the heavy favorite, Luster took command at the quarter pole and drew clear to win by 7 ¼ lengths under a hand-ride by John Velazquez. Luster earned a career-best 108 ESF for the win against the colts and geldings, which is the highest last out ESF of any filly in this QEII field.

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Over the past month, horses in graded stakes races on the turf with the highest last out ESF win at 34 percent, including Joe Shiesty, Agate and Adonius at Keeneland this meet. Military Time, who finished a distant second to Luster in the King’s Plate, went on to win the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie, the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown which added to Luster’s impressive victory. Luster has come out of the King’s Plate in good order as well, posting two consecutive bullet works in her first breezes since the win. While she did beat the boys, Luster will face a 10-point increase in class rating in the QEII. Regardless, she is proven over the turf and the Keeneland turf and could be the real deal in here. Luster is still a question mark in a lot of ways, and a 5-2 morning line is a short price for a filly making her Grade 1 debut.

The rest of the field with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races: Haute Diva (101), Turner’s Charm (100), Braida (NA), Storm’s Wake (105), Lookin At Diamond (103), Kensington Lane (102), Deep Learning (101), and Soloist (102).

Win Contenders in Preference Order:

Faithful Departed
Tam Tam
Luster

Grade 1, $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes
Saturday, Oct. 10 – Keeneland, Lexington, Ky.
Race 9 – Post Time 5:16 p.m. ET
3-Year-Old Fillies – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)

This story was originally published by Paulick Report on Oct 8, 2026, where it first appeared in the Horseplayers section. Add Paulick Report as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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