I’m betting on Detroit’s passing game this week, and I want a piece of Arizona’s response. We also have a reception that does not need to be carried to help us and two forest birds, whose functions are suitable for defense.
Let’s go into it.
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Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Say what you will about Detroit’s defense. We’ll get to that when we talk about Michael Wilson. But this Lions offense is taking on an Arizona defense that is terrible against the pass, and I like it a lot at this point.
Goff enters this game with 1,214 passing yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions. Arizona has already allowed 11 passing touchdowns and an opponent passing rating of 114.9 through four games. Here is the whole transition opportunity of the attack.
The Cardinals’ 66.4% gives Detroit two high percentages to work with, but that doesn’t mean Goff won’t have his shots. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam Laporta can move the chains. Jameson gives Williams a chance to turn one completion into a big play. It might be a good place for him to go too.
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And Jahmyr Gibbs was enveloped on the ground and through the air. His presence does not take me away from Goff. This crime was confirmed in another way in the fortress of Turpis.
We don’t need another 50-start game. Goff can be efficient, create explosive plays and still have a monster fantasy day without throwing every possession.
I have him at QB2 this week, with over 300 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. That tells where I stand. We’re not treating Goff as a streaming option here. I will begin with him with confidence.
RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
We know Harvey isn’t going to carry the ball a ton. He has 12 goals this season. If you’re expecting him to suddenly become a 20-year-old, you’re looking for the wrong thing.
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His involvement in the game is why I want to talk about it.
Harvey has 22 catches for 132 yards in three appearances, including 10 catches last week. Denver finds ways to get the football, and whether those receptions come on a designated screen or a quick exit from Bo Nix.
Strikers allowed running backs to account for 21.6% of the targets against them, the eighth most in four weeks. This fits with what Harvey is already doing. Ducks, rushes and covers were part of his receiving job, giving Snow options without the need to push the ball downfield.
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Now, the 10-capture is not the baseline. Harvey’s road share is only 33.8%, and JK Dobbins still has his shares at the finish line. We can like the perception that Harvey has taken over this backfield without pretending to be involved.
But if I have to choose between Harvey and a back who needs a touch to save his afternoon, I’m looking for a pass-catching guy.
He’s a stronger player in full PPR, but I’d consider flipping him in half PPR as well. Ports are not a selling point – the work is accepted.
Luther Burden III, WR, Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Chicago is a bit of a rolling crapshoot right now.
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What do we get from Tyson Bagent? How effective will the rushing attack be? Where does the transit taker get the opportunity? I’m not going to act like clean answers to all of that.
What I’ll do is look like I’ve earned the burden.
During the four weeks, 22% of the target shares and 28.2% of the first part were read. This wasn’t the huge, explosive breakout people were expecting, but Chicago is making it a significant part of the offense. That is more important to me than whether it is presented in a light reel.
More than half of his night came from the slot, and Green Bay played the zone at a 73.6% rate. Loads of work in digs, quick exits and shallow crosses give Ben Johnson ways to get involved without asking Bagent to make the often difficult shot downfield.
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The wide receivers also accounted for two of the targets against the Packers. Chances are there are Chicago receivers, even though we can’t guarantee how they are distributed.
Could this be a game changer for Kalif Raymond? Certainly. That’s part of the frustration when trying to pin down this offense.
Still, the complexity of the target load gives me something tangible to believe. I like this one against Green Bay, especially at receiver whose entire case depends on connecting on one deep ball.
Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions
Michael Wilson is the real deal. The Lions weren’t suffering on defense.
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Where am I going?
You don’t earn 17 targets by accident. And Wilson’s broader use tells us that it’s not just about chasing after a busy afternoon. It has a 94.4% participation rate, a 28.9% target share and 36.8% reading the first part in four weeks.
Arizona wearing him in the field and looking for him. He has become a critical factor in this offense, and I don’t think the Cardinals will move away from that against Detroit.
The Lions have allowed 11 passing touchdowns and a 110.4 opponent passer rating. If Goff and Detroit’s offense have a standout day, Arizona will demand answers. I expect Wilson and Trey McBride to be part of that answer.
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McBride is an excellent matchup too. Tight ends reported for 32.3% of targets against Detroit. But there is room for both players to produce. We don’t have Marvin Harrison Jr. Make a splash to find someone who can use this defense.
Paris Johnson Jr. there is a concern about losing the line. I don’t let go of what protection is. But Wilson can work at different depths, and his curls, curls and intermediate routes give Arizona ways to wrap him up without delaying the deep shot.
I play Wilson with full confidence. It helps in the matchup, but it’s the role that makes this a great recommendation.
TJ Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Hockenson has sensed the fantasy radar for a while. Then you keep Minnesota making him a priority, and suddenly you remember how useful this guy can be.
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A connection with Kyler Murray last week caught my attention. Even though Justin Jefferson is coming back, I don’t think that means Hockenson’s involvement will just disappear.
There will be more target audience, that’s nice. But Hockenson has 23.6% of the target share and 28.1% of the first law share for four weeks. Minnesota asked him, and this opponent gives the Vikings reasons to keep.
Tight ends received 32.2% of targets against New Orleans, third-most in the league. The Saints also used cover 3 on 43.6% of their passing plays. Hockenson’s short and intermediate work gives him the ability to find space under this coverage.
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I hope Brian Flowers’ defense will return to life in New Orleans. But that doesn’t mean Minnesota needs to spend all afternoon throwing for Hockenson. It takes some time to get things to a state where we often hope our initiative is involved.
I like Hockenson as the starting option here. Perish the wrong news, but don’t take away the connection we just saw by returning Jefferson.