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San Diego Padres (4) at Milwaukee Brewers (1), 4:00 PM ET
SDP: Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA, DRA-103); MIL: Logan Henderson (113, 2.47 ERA, 89 DRA);
Michael King is pretty middle-of-the-pack as far as startups go. He ended his season in a tough loss against the Dodgers, then quickly bounced back to throw seven scoreless innings in the first Wild Card game. It’s unfortunate that San Diego’s best starter is likely when you consider the strength of the opposing staff, but if he can get going next week (or really something close to it), the Padres will be in good shape. He had the strongest defenses in the American Family Camp, so that it was almost impossible to find him.
The bad news is that the Brewers take oaths well, and none of the King’s voices are necessarily elected; His slider (6% usage) and strikeout (19%) earn favorable StuffPro grades, but his changeup (26%) is weak on that front and is significantly affected by his xSLG and xwOBA. Almost all of Milwaukee’s lineup has the ability to severely punish pitch speedsters, especially Jackson Chourio and Jake Bauers (both +4 RV, per Statcast), so they can mix it up carefully with their own.
Rookie starter Logan Henderson is the King’s foil in many ways. It is not Rome. 1 – although it was given yesterday, it would be good – but there are conversions where it would be likely. One of the first weaknesses is a lack of experience, and this will be its first appearance. Fortunately for the Brewers, it starts at home, where he’s been far better than he is on the road, even when he hasn’t been at his best, but he still loses when he takes the mound in Milwaukee.
It’s clear that today is the face of the most active Padres power-changing offense. Henderson’s streak, which he throws 47% of the time, is noticeably weaker against right-handed hitters, who are hitting .356 compared to lefties’ .228. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr love as hands or bats together.