NEW YORK — It’s largely forgotten in history, but the last time Coco Gauff entered the U.S. Open as the favorite, her first-round match turned into an anxious check. Down came Laura Siegemund, whose clever shots and athleticism got under Gauff’s skin, immediately forcing her to dig out on her way to her first major title three years ago.
There was a moment in Gauff’s 2026 debut Tuesday at Arthur Ashe Stadium when things could take a similar course. After tying up through the first set and starting to break quickly in the second set, the gaucho Zeynep Sonmez opponent began to decline.
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In tennis terms, redlining is essentially when the underdog decides he has nothing to lose, starts taking big risks and gets into a groove where every shot seems to go in. In the stroke, Gauff went from cruising to a quick victory to go down 2-3 and against a break point. With Sonmez making huge cuts to the ball and landing some heavy punches, it looked like things might get complicated.
But Gauff in 2026 did not float so easily under the weight of heavy expectations as he was at the age of 19. But Gauff can now turn a similar match on another day in the office, to win the wild SIGN 6-3, 6-4 in 80 minutes.
“I don’t know what makes him feel safe,” Gauff said. “I think maybe I should have had confidence this week and knowing that the opponent had a really high thing to do and I was going to go really low level maybe for him. But Zeynep led high today. I was just happy to take the second set.”
Although Gauff’s form has been uneven in the first part of the tennis season, there is a reason why he looks like a good bet to win a second US Open this year. Since starting Wimbledon, Gauff is 16-2 and won the Cincinnati title in dominant fashion — similar to the run of form he found in 2023, when he rode the wave to his first Slam.
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Another thing in Gauff’s favor: There are bigger questions about the rest of the field. No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka has been in funk all summer, and No. 2 Elena Rybakina injured her foot in Cincinnati (although she easily won the first round on Tuesday). The other contenders have struggled recently, and this summer’s Slam winners – French Open champion Mirra Andreeva and Wimbledon winner Linda Noskova – have struggled to establish a new status in the game.
That leaves Gauff as the woman to beat this season, especially in New York where he is arguably on par with Carlos Alcaraz as the biggest star and fan favorite.
Because she is so popular and carries a large ranking, Gauff is expected to always do well in the Slams. But Gauff’s track record has been defined by periods where he wins a lot of matches on the regular season without playing his best, then crashes early in the majors.
But when he plays well, you can see the big event from a million miles away. And everything in his game right now suggests he’s in a great place: Serve is on fire, his right hand is pretty solid, and he’s been getting huge payouts lately from frequent traps and intent.
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Gauff is arguably the best player in women’s tennis to mask her flaws. But when he is struggling with no handicaps, he is very difficult to beat.
“I think when my opponent and I are playing at level factors, I think it’s like a first-round match,” Gauff said. “I think he probably played one of the better matches today, especially in the middle of that second half. That doesn’t mean I’m not nervous about the next match, because I probably want to be. I don’t know, I felt such a weird feeling today that I felt quite calm.”
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Obviously, there’s a long way between now and Sept. 12. when the strongest of women is crowned. But after losing the Wimbledon semifinal to Karolina Muchova in a grueling third-set tiebreak, Gauff withdrew from the game in tough trials.
Turning back the challenge from Sonmez without too much drama was exactly the kind of match that would start a title run. Now he just needs to do the same thing six times.