What can we expect from Teruaki Sato and Shugo Maki?

Translated by José M. Hernández Lagunes

Every winter, the time comes when I spend 2,000 Japanese coins (about $12.66, or the price of two Starbucks coffees) to analyze data in the Nippon League. DeltaGraphs. This year I wanted to examine the specific speed differences in NPB. Like the rest of the world, Japan uses the metric system (and they drive on the left too). This means that the limit is on DeltaGraphs it is 150 kph, or about 93.2 mph.

Since the early 2010s, NPB pitchers have been gradually increasing their speed. Today, NPB hitters are coming to the major leagues with much more powerful pitches than the players who made the leap a decade ago. However, absolutely, there is still a big speed difference between NPB and MLB. It’s no secret that a faster pitch offers substantial benefits for pitchers, and the average pitch velocity has increased in both leagues. In 2014, under 3% of NPB plate appearances ended with a 90+ mph fastball, compared to 23.2% in MLB. Twelve years later, the plate appearance ratio in NPB increased to 11.3%, while in MLB it rose to 35.7% in 2026.

NPB veterans can go on a full season (143 games) streak as some plate appearances against pitching speed. Data set of * DeltaGraphs It starts in 2014, and since then only 54 women (out of a total of 226 qualified women) have recorded 150 plate appearances against faster speeds over 150 kph. Most players achieve this mark on average six seasons, averaging 68 plate appearances per typical at-bat during their qualifying seasons.

Fortunately, two of NPB’s top hitters were expected to be announced this winter.Import Score of the Yokohama DeNA BayStars and Teruaki Sato of the Hanshin Tigers—have recorded respective totals of 249 and 338 plate appearances against fastballs over 90 mph. If we compare the fly ball rate and the fly ball rate with the premium velocity in NPB, they both look a lot like two former NPB stars who have already moved on to the Major Leagues: Sato with free agency. Seiya Suzukiand Maki with Kazuma Okamoto Blue Jays. Sato posted a 39.9% strikeout rate and 61.2% fly ball rate, compared to Suzuki’s 40.2% and 60.8%. Maki posted a 37.0% hard hit rate and a 60.1% fly ball rate compared to Okamoto’s 37.6% and 60.3%. This graph shows the hard hit percentage (x-axis, NPB average: 35.9%) and the ball percentage (y-axis, NPB average: 51.1%) for NPB hitters with at least 150 plate appearances that ended in a pitch of 150 kph or faster from 2014 to 2026. In blue points are players who have reached the MLB and in red are two candidates for election.

Suzuki, Okamoto and Munetaka Murakami the elevation rate is contained in terms of while Masataka Yoshida marked much less, although the highest number of hard boards (44.7%) was recorded in the group. The old NPB hitters who hit fly balls to fastballs retained their power in the major leagues. Yoshida showed the least power of the group with an ISO of .139. (This does not apply to the World Baseball Classic where he became a similar player Barri’s chains in the last two tournaments).

With all this in mind, let’s compare each pair’s achievements through NPB.

Shugo Maki, 2B, was used by Caesar

Compared to Okamoto, Maki was hitting outside the pitch in the NPB zone, but for that he slipped with better contact in the zone (89.2% vs. 85.9%) and a lower swing rate (19.1% vs. 23.9%). Okamoto posted a 27.3% outside-the-zone strikeout rate (65th percentile), a 32.8% swing rate (7th percentile), and a 28.8% strikeout rate (9th percentile) in his rookie season, but finished the season on a high note with a 24.7% strikeout rate in September. Maki’s contact fees are enough to give him a higher base than Okamoto. He will have to throw minor pitches outside the strike zone in the big leagues, which is easier said than done.

Maki and Okamoto have almost identical percentages of hard hits (40.2% vs. 40.8%) and to left field (44.5% vs. 43.6%), but their biggest difference lies in how they put the balls in play. Maki hits more ground balls (40.4% vs. 36.2%) and fewer fly balls (50.8% vs. 54.3%). This is reflected in the latest one-year season totals in the NPB run. Okamoto hit 41, while Maki’s best score was 30.

Teruaki Sato, 3B, was a pinch hitter

Having won the NPB Triple Crown in 2026, Sato is probably the most familiar name to most fans. In a notable free agent class, Sato’s power is his signature, with 79 homers over the last two seasons. Sato sent far more swings outside the zone than Suzuki (35.4% vs. 20.1%), along with more swings into the zone (75.7% vs. 60.4%). His contact rate in the zone was nearly 10 points lower (80.0% vs. 89.8%), and his swing drop rate was significantly higher (31.8% vs. 19.1%). Suzuki’s plate training extends across the Pacific Ocean. He posted a best strikeout rate outside the zone of 21.0% in five major league games, 16th lowest among hitters with at least 1,500 at-bats. Suzuki didn’t start hitting for power until his fourth major league season, but his ability to miss pitches allowed him to keep it low while pitching. That will not be a good thing.

Sato and Suzuki have similar hitting status in NPB. They have the same strikeout rate (40.4%), nearly the same fly ball rate (56.4% vs. 55.7%), outfield rate (40.2% vs. 40.4%), HR/FB rate (14.0% vs. 13.7%) and BABIP (.334 vs. 337). Its main difference lies in its action against the speed of speech. Sato’s HR/FB rate dropped from 14.0% to 10.7%, while Suzuki’s rose from 13.7% to 15.2%.

So what do we expect from these two players? Maki is similar to Okamoto, but with more contact and less power. Sato has a wider approach, but he chased more pitches and made less contact than Suzuki. Maki is a safer bet, as Sato carries more risk, but has a greater potential for his power.

These predictions have their limitations. The NPB does not have as much public information as the MLB (plus the disadvantage of not speaking Japanese). Hawk-Eye systems are limited to NPB stages, so we do not have access to biomechanical data. Earlier this winter, some analysts expressed concern about how Murakami would adjust to the higher leagues, but he put up a career-high 11 against a league-high four in his debut season, ranking 22nd overall. (Okamoto’s career hitting value of +18 against the top four is the sixth-highest in baseball.) Okamoto is projected to be a major contact hitter with less power, but he has 33 home runs, just two fewer than Murakami. Given the success of Ohtani, Suzuki, Murakami and Okamoto, he won’t hesitate against Maki or Sato.