It’s a young offseason. The fireplace is barely warm. Brewers are hardly sober.
But there is no one left to chatter.
Industry insiders are split on how the immediate labor shutdown will impact the winter market. Some think that the time between now and Dec. 1 CBA expiration will be dedicated to free agents, many of whom could be incentivized to sign under the game’s pre-existing financial structure. On the flip side, it is thought that the relative weakness of this winter’s free agent class, especially on the position-player side, could make the market a bit more active than usual in the first half of the winter.
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Frankly, no one really knows. Next week’s GM meetings in Las Vegas should provide some clarity and get a handle on some business turnaround, but until then it’s speculation.
So let’s take a look at some of the candidates for this offseason’s top trade.
Rasmussen, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Aces further solidified themselves as one of the game’s best with a legendary 28-inning run in October. It was nothing but itself, a burst of brightness. Rasmussen and Philadelphia’s Christopher Sánchez were the only two pitchers with at least 30 starts and an ERA under 3.00 in each of the past two seasons.
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Rasmussen is also, all of a sudden, quite expensive. The escalator crowd is set to hit completion in 2026, with $20 million to be paid in 2026. That would be the single greatest expense in freedom history. Publicly, Tampa Bay has expressed a willingness to pay that amount. Not only did the club pick up the 2027 option on Rasmussen’s contract just days after the World Series ended, but president of baseball operations Erik Neander told reporters the team had “every intention” of keeping Rasmussen.
There were also many executions of similar sentiments presented in the course. Last winter, for example, Brewers head honcho Matt Arnold said trading Freddy Peralta was “not in the front of my mind” before he did it. Given Tampa Bay’s pledge and Rasmussen’s increased salary, it’s fair to assume that Neander and Co. they will listen to offers.
Ketel Mars, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks
On Tuesday, mid-August Rumspringa, where he went AWOL, ended up on the short list, resurfaced in Casino and two weeks later, he said, was one of the more surprising and unexpected stories of the 2026 MLB season. But the Diamondbacks, who finished just two games out of a playoff spot, aren’t laughing. Having the freedom of a second baseman in the field for that stretch could have made a difference.
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Therefore, when the arrangement took the road in every direction, it is clear that the serpent’s relationship with Mars has declined abruptly. He has never been cornered due to technical expertise and, as a player with 10-5 rights, holds a full no-trade. Arizona has considered a trade for him in the past but has never considered a potential buyer.
Tumultuous Tuesdays and statistically underpar times have definitely pushed that price down further. However, GM Mike Hazen and Co. will have to be convinced that they can cut their meat on the Mercurial secondary baseman for a right-handed return package. The glut of second basemen on the free agent market should have given teams other options, though.
Jeremy Peña, SS, Houston Astros
The Astros also have many infielders. They had a similar outcome in 2026, with Pena at short, Carlos Correa at third base, Jose Altuve at second, Christian Walker at first, Yordan Alvarez at DH, and Isaac Paredes at outfield. Correa resolved the unnecessary injury of the season, pushing Paredes to the hot corner. All of that sextet, however, remains under contract until 2027, presenting the Astros with a conundrum.
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Peña, one year away from being a free agent and signing an unexpected extension in Houston, was the biggest hit in the deal. Several minor injuries limited his availability in 2026, but he still managed to put up 3.7 bWAR in 112 games with 22 homers and an OPS north of .800. Boston, Philadelphia, Toronto and Atlanta are all interesting.
Teoscar Hernández, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have been very open about their desire to get younger, faster and more athletic. Hernández fits none of these categories. With Andy Pages anchored in the middle of the field and Kyle Tucker making a killing on the right, Los Angeles’ most obvious route to open the position, Joshua De Paula involved in trading Hernández. The 34-year-old’s contract is $22,166,667 for 2027, with a $15 million option for 2028.
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Hernández is still a dangerous and unpleasant character. You can expect rams and Ks, but when Teo hits, good things usually happen. Coming off a solid, if unexpected, heavy season, the two-time World Series star is firmly on the decline of his career, but he’s still an interesting option for a team looking for a steady veteran staff.
George Kirby, SP, Seattle Mariners
A surplus of good starting pitching is a first-world problem, but the Seattle Mariners have it with Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock and Kade Anderson. Flipping one of those weapons to the backfield makes sense, especially since Randy Arozarena, Seattle’s best player in 2026, is likely to open the door in free agency.
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Hancock and Kirby are the two most likely to be dealt, although Gilbert will hit the open market next winter. Remaining aware of why Kirby’s fastball and command have consistently declined over the past few seasons would be the No. 1 priority. 1 for each new employer.
Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox
What a fall from grace. Two years ago, Boston’s edgy, strong outfielder finished eighth in American MVP voting. At this time, he was the second worst player in the game. He had a .266 on-base percentage! Yikes! And Duran’s personality sometimes rubs off just enough to make a small amount of heavy production more difficult for Boston to shoulder.
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It’s long past time for the Sox to sell big in their 30s, which they could have done two years ago. But with Ceddanne Rafaela in center, Wilyer Abreu in right and Roman Antonio back to full health, Duran is clearly the odd man out at Fenway.
Reid Detmers, SP, Los Angeles
The Angels received a mountain of inquiries about Detmers before the trade deadline, but nothing ever came together, in part because the Halos were too busy trading a bunch of other guys. This decision was a step in the right direction, for which former interim GM John Mozeliak deserves a lot of credit. What happens now is anyone’s guess. The Angels’ new ownership has yet to install a new head of baseball operations, which puts Detmers and the rest of the roster in somewhat of a holding pattern.
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And whenever a new exec takes the reins, dealing with Detmers should be one of the first items on the list. The 27-year-old is coming off the best season of his career, but he only has two years under his belt. There’s almost no chance that Anaheim’s contention window matches that timeline, making Detmers perhaps the single most obvious trade candidate this winter.
Other names to observe; Brandon Marsh (Phillies), Shane McClanahan (Rays), Spencer Strider (Braves), Mark Vientos (Mets), Luis Campusano (Padres), CJ Abrams (Nationals)