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Tampa Bay Rays (1) at Milwaukee Brewers (1), 8:00 PM ET
TB: Rasmussen drew (16-5, 2.67 ERA, 75 DRA-);
THOUSAND: Logan Henderson (113, 2.47 ERA, 89 DRA);
Even factoring in Henderson’s sparkling ERA/DRA, this matchup is a mismatch on paper. Rasmussen is a combination of volume (he has three starts with 6+ innings this season; Tyler Mahle is the only other starter who has also logged two) and quality (only eight batters in this century with at least 20 innings lower than Rasmussen’s single-season ERA) to allow staff to sleep easy at night.
While this certainly matters, the way current managers are using — or rather, not using — their starting pitchers means you can’t just look at Henderson’s limited workload and chalk this one up as a Game 2 win for the Rays. It could also work out to the Brewers’ advantage, depending on how much Rasmussen has left in the tank. Including the postseason, Rasmussen has started 193 innings, far more than he has ever had in a single season. Because of the way the Brewers have managed their staff this October, Henderson doesn’t need to go toe-to-toe with Rasmussen for seven innings.
Rasmussen’s electrifying performance in Game 1 of the ALDDS may have given casual fans the impression that he’s a punchout machine, but his two starts against goalies are perhaps more indicative of the game. He walks almost none (among the qualifiers, only teammate Nick Martinez had a lower walk rate in the regular season) and even when he’s not quite at his best (as happened in Game 1 of the ALCS) he mixes the team’s takedowns, bunts, and changeups very skillfully, making it next to impossible for opposing hitters. Brewer’s ability to grind out each at-bat will be tested against Rasmussen.
The surface results for Henderson were good, but unstable at times with his command (in Game 2 of the NLDS) and the ball (two errors in Game 2 of the NLCS gave Brewers manager Pat Murphy quite a stir for the whole world to see). Henderson is usually a fastball/changeup pitcher who sometimes mixes in a curveball to get hitters off balance. The fastball has an extreme reverse split; Righties have a much easier time pitching against the heater this season than lefties. Interestingly, the Rays were the weakest of the teams on fastballs this season, so outside of Junior Caminero this may not present as much of a disadvantage to Henderson as you might expect. Henderson’s extremely patient line drives give him virtually no margin for error outside the zone.