I’m not an entirely unbiased commentator on the hypothetical arts, which is why my first instinct when I heard ESPN mention the Cardinals and Tarik Skubal in the same breath was to scoff and turn them away. However, the more I began to think about the concept of the St. Louis Cardinals signing Tarik Skubal as a free agent, the more I realized it was worth exploring, even though I predict it will never happen.
I want to make it clear that this is not a free agent signing prediction that has arisen with us. Check out this 2026-27 MLB offseason’s best free agent picks from ESPN. They said the Chicago Cubs were the best fit for Tarik Skubal, but the second possible pick was our beloved Cardinals. This was immediately dropped on The Feed and inspired many interesting responses.
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One thing that David Schoenfield of ESPN said is that the hypothetical Tarik Skubal signing with the Cardinals is worth an estimated 2027 salary of just $66 million. Mathematically speaking, it wouldn’t be unworthy of St. Louis to even add a pitcher of Skubal’s stature to the roster. I have seen estimates that Tarik’s contract will command between $400 and $500 million. They offered Spotrac a 7-year, $276 million contract not too long ago. I think it’s brutally conservative, but let’s run with those numbers. Could the Cardinals handle a $40 million per season rotation superstar starter? My last name isn’t DeWitt, but it doesn’t sound unreasonable for St. Louis to suddenly have a $106 million roster spot for $66 million.
There are three reasons I think the St. Louis Cardinals/Tarik Skubal could make the most sense for what Chaim Bloom is trying to accomplish. He would be the first, last leader of the young arms in the Cardinals’ number to appear in Memphis. Who better to be a role model and mentor to young pitchers than a two-time Cy Young award winner? The second would be marketing. A Skubal signal cross message to the fantasy that the heavy organization is going to win again sooner rather than later. That would go a long way for the DeWitt family to put the attendance trajectory at Busch Stadium toward 3 million per season. Finally, Chaim Bloom didn’t want to leave any expectations behind to place the proven needle at the top of the rotation. Square in its office does not hurt the bottom line for short-term profit.
Now let’s break down why all of them will almost certainly never happen to my room. First, Tarik Skubal likely won’t have an interest in rebuilding the side even if he wanted to accelerate his return to competition. It will have the Dodgers, Yankees and other big market teams who are already competitive knocking on the door, willing to pay unreasonable amounts of money for long-term deals.
I’m not a Chaim Flower mind reader, but I think we’re going to get at least one if not two seasons away from him after more free agent talent. The last time I polled this community, we think 2028 was the most popular guess for when the Cardinals will be seriously competitive again. Why sign Tarik Skubal, who is likely to hit his peak in the next two seasons before the rest of the numbers are poised for a high postseason run? I would also be concerned about the bone chip found in Skubal’s left elbow this past May. He looked strong when he returned in mid-June for the rest of the season, but that was going to give me a slight pause before I recommend DeWitt’s checkbook for the acquisition.
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As I watched Chaim Bloom’s end of season press conference, I got a vibe from him that he’s withdrawn from some fan’s expectation that the rebuild is going than expected. It seemed to suggest that the prospect of competing seriously next season was premature. Do those words sound like the President of Baseball Operations planning to sign the biggest free agent pitcher in recent memory? I don’t think so.
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